In bad news for Australians struggling with the cost of living crisis, groceries are unlikely to fall in price in 2025, experts say.
The cost of a shopping basket will remain eye-wateringly high.
However, in one bit of positive news, it probably won’t get more expensive at the checkout in the New Year.
Plus, with the ACCC probe into Australian supermarkets due to reveal its findings in early 2025, the big firms will be in the spotlight, meaning they might actually roll out more good discounts.
“Despite the inquiries that are going on, we’re not going to see food prices fall dramatically,” retail expert Gary Mortimer, professor of consumer behaviour and retail marketing at Queensland University of Technology, told 9News.
He said to see any difference in prices, other costs such as fuel would have to fall for it to have a proper impact on the shelves.
“That’s not going to happen,” he said.
The ACCC has grilled bosses of Aldi, IGA affiliate Metcash, Coles and Woolworths on their pricing strategies.
In February it will hand a final report to the federal government explaining if and how Australians are being squeezed at the checkout.
When the results come out, it could make the companies sit up.
“I do think supermarkets are very sensitive to public opinion and reputation,” Mortimer said.
“I think we’ll probably see stabilisation.
“I think we’ll see long-term discounting, prices locked down, rolled back, whatever they say.
“Potentially some strong price promotions – we might see those being 40 per cent off your chocolate bars, 30 per cent off your soft drinks.
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“I think price stability, price promotion is the best we can hope for.”
Food prices rose 3.3 per cent over the 12 months to the September 2024 quarter, unchanged from the previous quarter, according to the ABS.
Fruit and veg in particular went up due to unfavourable growing conditions.
Higher prices in other food products include chocolate, due to record high cocoa prices, and eggs, where prices are 9 per cent higher compared to 12 months ago due to supply shortages caused by ongoing bird flu concerns.
Mortimer said that as well as stocking up on items when they are on offer, apps such as Frugl can help guide you to the best deals.
When it comes to other essentials like clothes, what Donald Trump does in the USA could have short-term benefits for Australians, Mortimer says.
For example, if he hits China with tariffs, factories there might end up with a glut of inventory, which the Asian superpower might need to sell at a discount.
“That’s going to be really interesting,” he said.
