Lee Carter is president of Maslansky + Partners, a language strategist, researcher and author of ‘Persuasion: Convincing Others When Facts Don’t Seem to Matter‘
President Joe Biden was carried into the White House on a wave of support from independent voters in 2022. After Tuesday night, it’s clear he won’t be able to rely on them again to win in 2024.
While Americans across the board conceded that Biden’s second State of the Union address was one of his best speeches – the bar is low. And even Democrats couldn’t help but cringe over his sometimes stumbling performance.
Our representative survey, comprised of 43 Democrats, 42 Republicans and 69 independent voters, indicates that Tuesday night did little to advance Biden’s political cause and provided more sad proof of America’s hardening tribal rivalries.
The panel evaluated key moments of the speech and recorded their reactions using equipment that tracked their feedback. In the video clips below, the feelings of Democrats are shown as a blue line, Republicans in red, and independents in green. The higher or lower the line trends reflects the relative intensity of their reactions.
In a troubling sign for Biden’s likely designs on the White House in 2024, he failed to win over independents and sometimes even Democrats winced when the commander-in-chief slipped through some of his remarks.
Predictably when Biden goaded his political opponents – Democrats rallied and Republican recoiled.
But when he equated the October 28, 2022, attack on Paul Pelosi, husband of former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, with the January 6th Capitol riots – not only Republicans, but also independents pulled back.
‘Just a few months ago, an unhinged big lie, an assailant unleashed political violence in the home of the then-speaker of this house of representatives,’ he said. ‘Here tonight in this chamber is the man who bears the scars of that brutal attack, but is as tough and strong and as resilient as they get. My friend, Paul Pelosi. Paul, stand up.’
President Joe Biden was carried into the White House on a wave of support from independent voters in 2022. After Tuesday night, it’s clear he won’t be able to rely on them again to win in 2024.
Democrats agreed with the message, saying things like, ‘Couldn’t agree more: Cannot give hate and extremism any safe harbor.’ And ‘I’m glad he acknowledged this. Hate has no home here.’
But independents didn’t get the connection saying, ‘What does Pelosi’s husband have to do with the election?’
Republicans were quick to point out the double standard in calling out a politically motivated attack on Pelosi by a mentally deranged assailant, while he said nothing of threats to Supreme Court Justices.
A mentally ill man, armed with a gun, pepper spray and knife, was arrested near Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s home in June.
‘He never said a word when protesters went after the Supreme Court justice,’ one Republican remarked.
While party divisions appeared prominently in the audience results, they weren’t completely immune to unity. When Biden announced plans to ‘Buy American,’ everyone liked it.
‘We’re going to buy American,’ he read to bipartisan cheers and applause. ‘Tonight, I’m also announcing new standards to require all construction materials used in federal infrastructure projects to be made in America. Made in America.’
Republicans felt like he was speaking their language – or at least borrowing it: ‘He stole Trump’s line.’
Independents may have been skeptical, but they were willing to extend him the benefit of the doubt: ‘I thought it sounded good BUT wondered about the potential cost difference of buying only American products.’
Democrats loved it.
The decision to invite the parents of Tyre Nichols, who was beaten by police in a shocking incident in Memphis and later died, also resonated across the political spectrum. And Biden’s calls for more resources for community policing were well received.
Aside from those bright spots for the president, the focus group was nearly unanimous at points in their disappointment.
In a political attack on Republicans, Biden was accused of mischaracterizing the GOP’s position on proposed cuts to Social Security and Medicare.
‘Instead of making the wealthy pay their fair share, some Republicans want Medicare and Social Security to sunset,’ he said.
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Under a shower of Republican boos, and even with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene shouting ‘liar,’ the president tried to walk it back.
‘I am not saying that is a majority,’ he added as a caveat. ‘Anybody who doubts it, contact my office and I will give you a copy of the proposal.’
Republican and independent voters turned sharply negative at this moment. But Democrats didn’t seem to relish in the moment either.
However, there’s also an indication that Republicans may have overplayed their hand here by appearing disrespectful.
One independent remarked, ‘Embarrassing how our president is shouted down. It didn’t happen to this extent in the last administration.’
Whether or not that is true – perceptions are important.
In one of the biggest gaffes of the night, Biden seemingly admitted that his administration intends to phase out fossil fuels within a decade, eliciting laughter from the GOP side of the aisle.
‘You may have noticed that big oil just reported record profits?’ Biden read, following up with the ad-lib. ‘When I talked to a couple of [these Big Oil executives] they said, ‘we are afraid you are going to shut down all the oil refineries anyway, so why should we invest in them?’
‘We are going to need oil for at least another decade and beyond that,’ said Biden over the laughter.
While Republicans and independent reactions were negative, even Democrats couldn’t help but reflect their unease.
And on what could have been a focal point of the night – America’s escalating tensions with China – Biden was largely silent.
He devoted only a small portion of his speech to the Chinese Communist regime floating a surveillance balloon over the United States. The airship was downed only after having crossed the country and passed over the Atlantic Ocean.
Biden attempted to portray this as a moment of strength. The survey indicated that Democrats were largely unmoved, and independents dissatisfied.
‘His words seem hollow,’ one independent remarked.
Finally, the story of the night happened in Arkansas where new governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders delivered the Republican response to the speech and clearly established herself as the other young governor to watch.
‘Whether Joe Biden believes this madness or is simply too weak to resist it, his administration has been completely hijacked by the radical left,’ said Huckabee Sanders. ‘The dividing line in America is no longer between right or left. The choice is between normal or crazy.’
Often, the ‘response seat’ is a thankless one. Think about dry-mouthed, Senator Marco Rubio a few years ago, who became an object of mockery when he repeatedly reached for a sip of water.
But Republicans and independents loved what Huckabee Sanders had to say. Democrats were revolted, as many labeled her the new face of MAGA.
Largely independents applauded, ‘I think she says what a lot of Americans may say, or at best, think.’
One Democrat respondent slammed her, saying, ‘She represents those who are the worst of our citizens. The only thing she said that I agree with is that she and Biden have very little in common!’
Largely independents applauded, ‘I think she says what a lot of Americans may say, or at best, think.’
In the end, it’s unlikely that the State of the Union address will significantly move the needle for the President. Democrats will be energized. Republicans will stay where they are. Independents really were turned off.
America’s partisan divisions were reflected clearly in these survey results, and Biden’s inability to appeal to independents may give Democrats second-thoughts about backing him for another White House run.
