We looked back at 2023 in last week’s newsletter. It was a solid year for the franchise. One of the best in a long time.
But 2024 could be better. Why?
There’s a lot of draft assets, a lot of prime years left on the roster and a lot of important questions.
We’ll go through the five biggest questions facing the Knicks for the New Year and beyond, Sports+ style:
1. Will the Knicks finally make a big trade?
You knew it was coming. It’s the question you first asked, and the question I might as well get out of the way in the beginning: The answer is yes.
This is the year — 2024 — when Leon Rose finally uses all those draft picks and young players for a big move.
I’m sure we’ve predicted the same thing in the past (wrongly, obviously), but there are good reasons to think it’s time. What are those reasons?
There’s an expiration date on using these draft picks with likely two first-rounders and a valuable second-rounder (Detroit’s) set for use this summer. First-round rookies are less valuable to the Knicks than to other teams. They don’t need them.
Plus, the Knicks are going to have to commit financially to being a contender — or at least their idea of a contender — pretty soon. Josh Hart’s contract extension kicks in next season. Immanuel Quickley needs to be re-signed on a big deal — or perhaps traded.
Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle both become eligible for extensions in 2024. Those two also can wait until 2025 for bigger contracts in free agency, but either way, the Knicks should handle their big trade business before their cap sheet becomes so daunting and flexibility goes out the window.
One big question is whether the Knicks would be better off doing a deal before February’s trade deadline or waiting until the summer.
The simple answer to that is a question: Who is available? My guess is the bigger fish — Donovan Mitchell? — won’t hit the market until the summer or after their teams flame out in the postseason.
So the prediction here … drumroll … is the Knicks finally do their big deal in June or July of 2024.
2. Will the Knicks make their first conference finals since 2000?
They got to the conference semis in 2023, and progression means making the next round.
Maybe it’s not a mandate, but I’ve heard there’s pressure to make it.
Will they? Sadly, no.
Anything can happen in a seven-game series, including injuries, but it’s still tough to envision the Knicks toppling the Bucks or Celtics. We’re currently placing them as the fifth-best team in the East — behind the Heat and Sixers as well — which will make it challenging to get out of the first round.
Luckily, Brunson is clutch and emerging as a true star, which gives them a chance against most teams, even if the firepower on the Celtics, for instance, will be too much to overcome.
Which brings us to the next question…
3. Will Jalen Brunson finally be an All-Star?
He should be. He gets my vote. For sure.
But averaging over 26 points on a winning team doesn’t mean you’re a lock any more.
The competition is pretty heavy among guards in the East: Mitchell, Tyrese Maxey, Tyrese Haliburton, Damian Lillard, Trae Young. There’s even a push to get Derrick White an invite. The Boston media has no shame.
With that being said, Brunson will get one of the 12 spots.
Unfortunately for Randle, that means he probably won’t get one (the Knicks don’t deserve two).
And we say unfortunate because it would be financially rewarding for Randle, who has a $1.38 million All-Star bonus for 2024, according to Spotrac. That’s a nice 5.4 percent bonus on his $25.7 million salary. Not insignificant.
And we know — because he said so — that Randle was applauding the significance of a $500K reward for winning the In-Season Tournament. Randle already earned an extra $1.28 million for making the 2023 All-Star team.
Brunson, earning $26.3 million this season, has no All-Star bonuses in his deal.
4. Will Tom Thibodeau get an extension?
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Honestly, I don’t know.
I guess it depends on how the Knicks finish in the playoffs, but even a strong showing doesn’t guarantee anything for head coaches.
As Jeff Van Gundy once said, “If they don’t get you on your record, they’ll get you on relationships.”
I’m not going to rehash all the reasons Thibodeau deserves an extension, other than to tell you he’s already top-five in all-time Knicks victories and won Coach of the Year.
Regardless of how you feel about Thibodeau, the decision undoubtedly will be made in 2024. His contract is up in 2025, and coaches rarely operate on expiring deals. They’re either fired or extended.
Interestingly, the leaders of the front office — specifically Leon Rose and World Wide Wes — also have deals that expire in 2025, according to reports. Sometimes executives fire a coach to save their own behinds. Somebody has to take the blame if things don’t go well.
Not saying that’s the case with the Knicks, just providing a little history lesson. It’s going to be interesting to see how this plays out.
5. When will we see Mitchell Robinson again, and will he be the same?
The Knicks technically haven’t changed their timeline on Robinson’s ankle injury. It’s still the original re-evaluation in 8 to 10 weeks, which is now about 6 to 8 weeks away.
But they tellingly applied for a Disabled Player Exception, which means there’s an expectation — or at least a chance — he’s out for the season.
Robinson already underwent surgery to fix a fractured foot in 2021, which was an issue that extended six months, into the next training camp. This time, the fracture was in his left ankle. A big center with surgeries to both foot areas is obviously a concern.
We’ve seen careers derailed by these type of problems. Hopefully, that’s not the case with Robinson.
He’s the longest tenured Knick, but just 25 years old. He was in the midst of a breakthrough campaign and on a course to an All-Defense selection. The hope and thought was the Knicks had their starting center for a very long time. Now there are a lot more questions/concerns.
In addition to Robinson’s status, Isaiah Hartenstein hits free agency in the summer. We’ll find out more about Robinson in 2024, but it may have to wait until the next season starts in October.
Thunder struck
Two thoughts on the Knicks’ 129-120 defeat Wednesday night against the Thunder:
1. The Knicks really messed up — and I mean really messed up – by drafting Kevin Knox in 2018. It isn’t talked about as frequently as the 2017 flub when they passed on Mitchell for Frank Ntilikina, but bypassing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is more egregious.
First of all, Knox and Gilgeous-Alexander went to the same school (Kentucky), so Scott Perry and Steve Mills must have been watching these two players on the same scouting tapes and concluded, “You know what, that Kevin Knox will be a better NBA player.”
Second of all, Gilgeous-Alexander went two spots below Knox in the draft — the Clippers selected him at No. 11 — so nobody in retrospect could have claimed it was a reach to go to SGA. The Knicks were wrong. Very wrong. Gilgeous-Alexander is a legit First Team All-NBA candidate, and he carved up the Knicks on Wednesday. Knox is on his second stint with the Pistons.
2. The other takeaway is Thibodeau screwed up by subbing in RJ Barrett for Quickley with four minutes remaining.
Barrett was struggling all night, one of those performances that have become too common lately from the small forward. Quickley had it going. But Thibodeau, perhaps not wanting to offend one of his top players by benching him for the entire fourth quarter, went back to Barrett, who immediately committed a turnover and missed a trey. A seven-point deficit quickly turned into 13. Game over.
More on the Klutch issue
And two additions to my column about the Klutch-Knicks issue:
1. For people believing this is just some petty or personal beef, you’re wrong.
2. The other thing is whether a possible reconciliation opens the door for a potential Knicks trade for Dejounte Murray, who could hit the market before the February deadline, according to Hall of Fame NBA writer Marc Stein. It can’t hurt, that’s for sure.
But if I’m the Knicks, I don’t go that route unless the Hawks are cutting salary and dumping Murray for very little. The Knicks don’t need another guard unless it’s a massive upgrade such as Mitchell. The Knicks need a small forward.
Quick look around the league
The Suns are a mess, and Kevin Durant’s legacy has taken a massive hit in the second part of his career.
I can remember when he was the Golden Boy of the NBA with the Thunder, the anti-LeBron James because he was satisfied playing in a small market. Except he wasn’t satisfied. It seems he’s never satisfied. And then he made the massive mistake of attaching himself to Kyrie Irving.
Now Durant is reportedly frustrated with the circumstances in Phoenix, and the Nets understand what happens when Durant is frustrated. Does this open the door for a trade? Involving either Durant or Devin Booker?
I don’t think that’s going to happen soon because new owner Mat Ishbia didn’t pay all this money and sacrifice all those draft picks to give up in the middle of the season. But it’s something to monitor in the summer
…Mitchell, a persistent subject of Knicks trade rumors, has missed four straight games because of an undisclosed illness. Whatever it is, the illness didn’t keep Mitchell from warming up before Wednesday’s Cavaliers game.
…The Pistons’ record-breaking 27-game losing streak is made much more heinous by the fact that they just signed coach Monty Williams to a six-year, $78.5 million deal. People claim they have talent, but I don’t see it outside of Cade Cunningham.
Not saying this lightly: GM Troy Weaver is not good at his job. He’s good at selling himself to the right people. But he can’t competently put a roster together. Or hire the right coach.
The Pistons have officially embarrassed themselves.
