The rebellion in Russia is really happening
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Normally I don’t work this late but there are potentially world-changing events happening tonight. For those that need a quick primer, you can go back and read these four posts for the longer version. This has been building up for months:

The bullet points:

  • Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group and longtime friend of Putin, has been berating the Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu publicly for months, blaming him for failures in Ukraine.
  • Wagner took the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut while the Russian army seemed to be accomplishing nothing. This raised Prigozhin’s stock and he became even more outspoken.
  • Wagner retreated and handed Bakhmut over to the Russian army. Prigozhin mocked the army and predicted they would lose all his gains.
  • Prigozhin was told his troops would need to sign new agreements with the army, effectively putting them under the control of Prigozhin’s nemesis, defense minister Shoigu.
  • Prigozhin said no even after Putin endorsed the plan.
  • Friday, Prigozhin released a message saying the entire pretext for the invasion was a lie concocted by the defense minister for his own aggrandizement.
  • Hours later, Prigozhin claims defense minister Shoigu had bombed a camp full of his troops. He announced a “March for Justice” which he said wasn’t a coup but would rid the government of Shoigu.

So now let’s catch up on events of the past few hours. Prigozhin’s troops have been fighting with the army in and around the Russian town of Rostov.

They attacked the headquarters of the defense ministry in Rostov.

They apparently have taken control of the city.

Here’s Prigozhin apparently talking calmly with a deputy defense minister in Rostov.

Prigozhin’s forces are already headed to Voronezh which is about halfway to Moscow.

Lots of Russians trying to get out of the way.

Russian helicopters firing on the Wagner convoy.

And the highway north of Voronezh has been closed.

 

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