Republicans are sweating the outcome of two pivotal House races in deep red Florida while both sides look nervously at the Wisconsin Supreme Court election.
While Florida’s chief financial officer, Jimmy Patronis, is leading in the five-candidate race to succeed retired 1st District Rep. Matt Gaetz, he’s been outspent 5-1 by Gay Valimont, the Democrats’ leading candidate. Similarly, Republican State Sen. Randy Fine has been outspent 10-1 by math teacher Josh Weil in the race to succeed Rep. Mike Waltz in Florida 6.
Both GOP candidates have been aided by massive ad buys by conservative SuperPacs. Neither is likely to lose.
The problem is one of perception. Patronis may very well win by double digits (in a district Trump won by more than 30 points). But Fine’s campaign has been plagued by GOP infighting, with Fine having ruffled the feathers of Gov. Ron DeSantis by changing his endorsement to Trump before the Florida primary last year.
There have also been bitter complaints by local and national Republicans about Fine’s lackadaisical approach to the race.
“We are annoyed but not worried,” said one national GOP strategist. “Annoyed Fine hasn’t done jack s**t for himself and is counting on the ecosystem to bail him out,” he added. The politico spoke on the condition he wouldn’t be identified.
That “ecosystem” is a nearly 4-1 GOP registration advantage in Florida 6. DeSantis thinks that this factor alone will push Fine over the finish line. But the margins of victory will have Democrats attempting to gin up enthusiasm among their base supporters for coming close.
Wisconsin has no such “ecosystem” advantage for Republicans. What the GOP has is Elon Musk, who, along with his affiliated groups, has poured $20 million into the state’s Supreme Court race.
Musk isn’t on the ballot in Wisconsin, but Democrats have decided to make him the primary bogeyman. The race is to fill the seat of a retiring liberal justice, and with the current makeup of the court 3-3, this race will decide who sets the agenda in Wisconsin.
At stake are abortion access, public employee union bargaining rights, and a redrawing of the state’s 10 congressional districts that could give the Democrats an extra 2-3 seats in Washington.
Donald Trump has taken an active hand in the Wisconsin race as well, while Musk has crisscrossed the state trying to energize Republicans. Polls show an extremely close race, depending on the turnout model. Most surveys give Democratic Dane County Judge Susan Crawford the edge over former GOP attorney general Brad Schimel.
Related: Elon Musk Goes All In on the Wisconsin Supreme Court Race
In the last 10 days, Republicans have taken a hair-on-fire approach in Florida, frantically trying to get their voters to the polls. The ecosystem will almost certainly save both Fine and Patronis, although it will be much closer than it should be. Special elections have notoriously low turnouts historically, so even in a district with massive Republican registration advantages, an energized Democratic base could make it close.
Wisconsin is another matter. A state that Trump won by less than 30,000 votes has no solid GOP base to fall back on.
“The early vote data shows that even relative to 2024, Democrats are significantly more likely to show up than Republicans are — and in a state that Donald Trump won by less than a percentage point in 2024, this makes the GOP’s job much harder,” Lakshya Jain and Giacomo Pensa write on the polling site Spilt Ticket.
Whatever the final result in Florida, Democrats will claim victory for making it closer than expected. They won’t be able to do that in Wisconsin, but will say the GOP should have won anyway because of Musk’s million.
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