It wouldn’t take an unusually strong earthquake to cause severe damage across the Big Apple, analysis shows, but geology experts say New Yorkers shouldn’t be trembling about the Big One coming any time soon — even as the city experienced its third temblor in just over a year Monday afternoon.
An earthquake clocking in at just 5.2 on the Richter scale would cause about $4.7 billion in damage if it struck today, and also leave around 100 buildings “completely damaged” and about 2,000 people homeless, according to a 2019 disaster assessment done by the city.
That analysis was based on a quake of the same magnitude that shook the city on Aug. 10, 1884, which sent chimneys toppling and brick walls shattering.
But that was over 140 years ago, and the story could be far different for the modern city if the same quake struck again, the assessment found.
“Considering the amount of building and development in New York City since 1884, if the same magnitude earthquake occurred today, the amount of damage to people and property would be far worse,” the city’s report read.
And while experts think the odds of such a catastrophe are slim, many say it’s ultimately impossible to predict what might happen in the fickle field of tectonics.
“The short answer is that no one really knows,” said Dr. James Davis, a seismology professor at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “It’s pretty low, though, if you look at the overall risk.”
“What makes it different for New York City is there’s just a lot of infrastructure. So even a relatively low magnitude earthquake could have the possibility for some damage,” he added.
Davis’ warning came just hours after New York was shaken on Tuesday afternoon by a 2.8 magnitude earthquake, which followed a 3.0 originating just miles west in northern New Jersey’s Ramapo Fault zone on Saturday night.
And in April 2024, the city was hit by a 4.8 magnitude quake out of the Ramapo, which was about 3.9 times weaker than the 1884 5.2 — though still relatively close in magnitude by the Richter scale, where strength increases by 32 times for each preceding whole number.
The recent frequency of temblors coming out of the Ramapo is “unusual,” Davis conceded, but he reassured New Yorkers that it doesn’t mean the Earth is getting ready to unleash something big.
“It’s definitely an increase in frequency, but we don’t think that it’s an increase in frequency that portends anything,” he said.
“It’s more like, if you’re used to rain every few weeks, and then we get a week where it rains three days in a row. You don’t say, ‘Oh my God, it’s going to rain every day.’”
Dr. Kenneth Miller — a Rutgers University Earth sciences professor — thinks Tuesday’s temblor was an aftershock from Saturday’s.
He agreed that while it was difficult to estimate whether New York could be in store for serious damage from another quake, it probably won’t be happening any time soon.
“It’s very likely not a worry,” Miller said. “You never want to say nothing happened. But it seems very unlikely that any that any larger earthquake would occur in the immediate or near future.”
Miller estimates it would take between a 6 and 7 magnitude earthquake to bring mayhem to Manhattan, but said the Ramapo Fault zone probably doesn’t have that kind of power in it.
And the fault zone — which generally moves northeast by southwest — doesn’t even create the kinds of vertical moving earthquakes that typically topple buildings and spark tsunamis, Professor Davis explained.
New York City’s skyscrapers are also designed to withstand earthquakes up to 6.5 magnitude, meaning most modern buildings would survive a serious shaking.
But despite those reassurances, Davis said every earthquake should be a reminder of how important it is to adhere to safe building standards and to continue studying the seismology of the area.
“We should be aware that we do live in an area that gets earthquakes,” he said. “But I wouldn’t walk around in fear.”
