If not for picking the wrong tight end on the Panthers, we would have had a perfect Week 8.
Oh, well. Going 3-for-4 was still good enough for a 1.5x PrizePicks payout if you were on the Flex Play.
As is the case every Friday, I have scoured the PrizePicks lobby and have come up with my four favorite DFS projections for Sunday’s morning and afternoon games in NFL Week 9.
Jonathan Taylor more than 64.5 yards
We’ll start with Taylor, the Colts running back who racked up 82 rushing yards in the first quarter of last week’s game against the Saints. It was a bit strange to see Indianapolis go away from him in the next three quarters, but we are starting to see him separate himself in this backfield.
After paying him all that money, the Colts don’t really have a choice but to use him as their RB1.
Taylor’s snap rate has increased each of the last three games, and in Week 8, he played at a season-high 61% of the Colts’ snaps. If that trend continues, we have to like his upside against the Panthers, who are last in both DVOA against the run and rush EPA.
I expect Taylor, who is averaging 4.7 yards per carry this season, to see 14-18 carries against Carolina, which should be enough for him to get at least 65 yards on the ground.
Chuba Hubbard more than 45.5 rushing yards
Staying in the same game for my second pick, look for Hubbard to get more than 45.5 rushing yards, a number he has only hit twice this season, but for good reason as he’s competed for carries with Miles Sanders.
Sanders started the season as the Panthers’ RB1, but he has really struggled with efficiency. When he was forced to miss time with a shoulder injury, Hubbard stepped in and was very effective.
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Both players were in the lineup last week and it was pretty clear who the Panthers now view as their RB1. Sanders had 2 carries for 0 yards, while Hubbard had 15 carries for 28 yards.
The efficiency wasn’t great (1.9 ypc), but his usage was. If he sees 12-15 carries again, his chances to get 46 or more rushing yards against the Colts are good.
Zay Flowers more than 56.5 receiving yards
Flowers is coming off of a down week against the Cardinals, but the Ravens’ passing offense wasn’t asked to do much. While Lamar Jackson finished with only 157 passing yards, Baltimore’s ground game found success.
I expect a more pass-heavy game plan this week against the Seahawks, who are 19th in DVOA against the pass.
Flowers has seen 32 targets over the last four games and has a 28% air yards share of the Ravens’ offense. The Seahawks have struggled to defend wide receivers this season and Flowers sees a nice mix of short and deep targets.
Betting on the NFL?
Lamar Jackson more than 1.5 passing, rushing, receiving touchdowns
I’m playing up a little correlation for my last pick. If Jackson has a good game, that should be good for Flowers, and vice versa.
As mentioned above, Seattle has not been great against the pass, and the nice part about this projection is that Jackson can throw touchdowns or run them in.
All he needs is to score two touchdowns of any kind, which he has done in four of his last seven games.
