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304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
Happy Friday everyone!
We are back to break down the MLB PrizePicks board and find some strong selections to start off this holiday weekend.
28 of the 30 teams are in action starting at 6:40 p.m. ET or later this evening.
Let’s jump right into it.
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The Mets travel to Coors Field today to take on the Rockies.
The ballpark shift from Citi Field to Coors Field represents one of the largest upgrades for hitters in all of MLB.
Alonso is coming off a fantastic three-game series against the Cubs, in which he hit two home runs and recorded four RBIs despite less than ideal hitting conditions with the wind blowing in at Wrigley Field.
He now leads MLB with 19 home runs, four more than Max Muncy and Jorge Soler (who are tied for second).
He gets a much more favorable environment today in the best hitters park in baseball.
Not only is the ballpark working in his favor, but he gets a great matchup too.
The starting pitcher for the Rockies, Connor Seabold, owns a 5.97 ERA through 31.2 innings pitched this year with a well-below average 16.8% strikeout rate.
Alonso is having an outstanding season, with a .349 wOBA and .289 ISO versus right-handed pitching.
His 19.6% barrel rate ranks 5th in the league.
He should be able to post more than an 8.5 fantasy score today with all of these things working in his favor.
The Astros open up a three-game set with the Oakland Athletics today, who have had the worst pitching staff in MLB by a good margin so far this season.
James Kaprielian will make the start for the A’s, and he has been getting absolutely torched by left-handed hitters this season.
He has allowed an obscene .364 ISO and .447 wOBA to lefties, while managing to strike out just 17.9% of them.
Five of the six home runs he has allowed this season have come against lefties.
Houston just happens to have one of the best left-handed hitters on the planet in Yordan Alvarez.
He has posted a .406 wOBA and .307 ISO versus right-handed pitching since the beginning of last season.
His 19.0% barrel rate ranks 7th in baseball this season.
If Alvarez is unable to get the job done against Kaprielian, he should get a couple cracks at the Oakland bullpen.
The Athletics’ relievers own the worst SIERA (5.18), second-worst strikeout rate (18.8%), and worst walk rate (13.8%) in MLB this season.
Yordan has a great chance to post better than an 8.5 fantasy score today.
Devers and the Red Sox get a matchup with Arizona rookie right-hander Brandon Pfaadt.
And while Pfaadt is one of the better pitching prospects in baseball, he has not yet translated that prospect pedigree into success at the Major League level.
He owns a 5.70 SIERA through four starts this season, with a well below-average 15.9% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate.
Pfaadt has allowed a .410 wOBA, 50.0% hard hit rate, and .618 xSLG, which all rank in the bottom 5% of the league.
Devers has established himself as one of the better hitters in the Majors, owning a .373 wOBA and .248 ISO versus right-handed pitching since the beginning of last season.
His 13.8% barrel rate ranks 26th in MLB among hitters with at least 150 plate appearances this season.
He should be able to record multiple hits, or an extra-base hit, to give us more than 1.5 total bases today.
Acuna is off to the best start of his career, which is saying a lot since he has posted two seasons above a 155 wRC+.
Simply put, he is playing at an MVP level right now.
So far this season, he has posted a .424 wOBA, .245 ISO, and 166 wRC+ through 227 plate appearances.
He has swatted 11 home runs and added 22 stolen bases for good measure.
Today, Acuna gets a matchup against Taijuan Walker, who owns a 5.79 ERA with a 21.0% strikeout rate and 11.0% walk rate.
He has managed to strike out just 18.1% of the right-handed hitters he has faced this season.
Acuna has multiple ways to rack up a solid fantasy score thanks to his power and speed combination.
I like him to post more than a 9.5 fantasy score against the Phillies.