Polls have now closed in today’s Fadden by-election, triggered by the resignation of Stuart Robert.
The Liberals are hoping to retain the Gold Coast seat, which has never been won by Labor – something, even Prime Minister Anthony Albanese conceded this week would be an unlikely win.
The Liberals have put up Gold Coast City Councillor Cameron Caldwell as its candidate, while Labor is once again running Letitia Del Fabbro after she increased the party’s vote by 3.6 per cent in the seat at the last federal election.
The federal opposition has spent a reported $600,000 on the by-election in an aim to hold onto what is considered a safe LNP seat, following the Coalition’s historic loss in the Aston by-election earlier this year.
But Albanese doesn’t think Fadden will follow suit.
“Traditionally, there are swings away from a government of around about four to five per cent in a by-election,” he said on Friday.
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“Fadden, and that northern part of the Gold Coast have only ever returned LNP members… but our candidate is a great candidate; she’s out there – I was very happy to launch her campaign and the Labor Party are running so that people have that choice.
“But I don’t expect anything like the Aston by-election result.
“That was an extraordinary result, the first time in 100 years that the government have won a seat off the Opposition.”
Fadden is still firmly in the Liberals’ heartland – it’s never been won by Labor, and even after the swing in 2022, the Coalition retained it on a comfortable 10.6 per cent margin.
Some Labor figures believe eating into the LNP’s margin would represent something of a victory, but Opposition Leader Peter Dutton says he isn’t worried about Fadden’s margin – just as long as it remains in Liberal hands.
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