According to Tre Lovell, being a first-time offender could help Donald Trump leave his sentencing hearing knowing that he’ll remain a free man, albeit with the restrictions that come with being on probation. Former New York prosecutor Tim Bakken agreed, telling CBC that this is the prevalent view among those well-acquainted with NYC’s criminal justice system. However, Judge Juan Merchan will also take into consideration Trump’s behavior during his trial — it did earn him 10 gag order violations and a jail threat from the judge, after all.
As far as how being a convicted felon will affect Trump’s chances of winning the presidency, Lovell believes that his steadfast supporters probably won’t jump ship. However, he added, “Some independents, though, who are on the fence may be disheartened and step away from him.” A January 2024 Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll found that 53% of Americans living in swing states would not vote for Trump if he were to become a convicted criminal before the election. However, the polling was in Trump’s favor as his trial concluded — according to FiveThirtyEight, he had an almost two-point aggregate lead over Joe Biden nationally. His trial also hasn’t made him political poison in the eyes of many other prominent Republican politicians. Several of Trump’s VP candidates even showed up at court to support him.
