Latest NYT/Siena Poll: Trump's Lead Widens After Biden's Disastrous Debate Performance

The results of a new poll by the New York Times and Siena College were published Wednesday afternoon. 

It’s good news for former President Trump. Not so much for President Biden. Concerns over Biden’s ability to govern rose to new heights. 

Mr. Trump now leads Mr. Biden 49 percent to 43 percent among likely voters nationally, a three-point swing toward the Republican from just a week earlier, before the debate. It is the largest lead Mr. Trump has recorded in a Times/Siena poll since 2015. Mr. Trump leads by even more among registered voters, 49 percent to 41 percent.

Doubts about Mr. Biden’s age and acuity are widespread and growing. A majority of every demographic, geographic and ideological group in the poll — including Black voters and those who said they will still be voting for him — believe Mr. Biden, 81, is too old to be effective.

Oof.

Biden is in a free fall. The more time passes after the debate, the worse it gets for him. 

This is even worse because Biden has to have independents to win. (Same as Trump. No candidate can win without independents.) 

Overall, 74 percent of voters view him as too old for the job, up five percentage points since the debate. Concerns about Mr. Biden’s age have spiked eight percentage points among Democrats in the week since the debate, to 59 percent. The share of independent voters who said they felt that way rose to 79 percent, nearly matching the Republican view of the president.

Democrat lawmakers and donors demand that Biden prove to the voters that he is able to do the job. He has to prove he can finish a thought or deliver a vision of future policy during a debate. Here’s the thing – Biden isn’t able to do that. He just can’t do it. He won’t magically be healed and perform like a champ in the second debate if he chooses to participate. 

The worst hill Team Biden has to climb is that they have been caught in a lie. None of the things his staff or those around him said to ease fears that the president was too old and feeble to do the job were true. Joe Biden isn’t sharp or vigorous, or running circles around the staff behind closed doors. He isn’t working 24/7 for the American people. 

Biden cannot change his problems with dementia. He can’t get younger. There is no fixing this. 

The lying to the American people is what will ultimately sink his candidacy. He looked and sounded terrible during the debate, that is true. But it exposed the lying that has been going on throughout his term. And it exposed the media for their complency. The media did it to keep Trump from being president again. They are not supposed to pick political winners but they do. We knew it and the debate performance confirmed our opinions. The majority of the media is an arm of the DNC. 

Trump is viewed more favorably by men and Biden by women.

In the pre-debate poll, Mr. Trump had led among likely male voters by 12 percentage points. After the debate, his lead among men ballooned to 23 points. That movement was particularly concentrated among younger men and men without college degrees.

Mr. Biden’s five-point edge among likely women voters before the debate actually ticked up slightly, to eight points.

Trump increased his edge greater than Biden. 

Those who watched the debate thought Trump bested Biden 60% to 22%. 16% thought Biden did well, 3% thought he did very well. Who in the world were those 3% – family and friends blinded by loyalty?  

Biden is hemorrhaging support from his own party.

About one-third of Democrats said Mr. Biden did well compared to 89 percent of Republicans who said the same of Mr. Trump.

There was a staff meeting today to talk about the way forward. Staffers were told to brace themselves for bad polling post-debate in an internal staff memo. Shouldn’t staff be used to poor polling numbers? Trump has led most polls for months. 

“Polls are a snapshot in time and we should all expect them to continue to fluctuate,” wrote Julie Chavez Rodriguez, the campaign manager, and Jen O’Malley Dillon, the campaign chair. They said internal metrics showed the race within the margin of error. The campaign had previously released a post-debate poll showing Mr. Biden trailing Mr. Trump, but the campaign said the margin had not changed since before the debate.

Biden’s unfavorable number rose to 61 percent, and Trump’s to 55 percent.

More voters think Biden is a riskier choice than Trump. 

More voters said in the poll that re-electing Mr. Biden in November would be a risky choice for the country than those who said it of Mr. Trump. In the survey, 63 percent of voters said Mr. Biden was a risky choice, compared to 56 percent who said Mr. Trump was risky.

That’s interesting, given Biden said he’s the only one who would save democracy. 

It isn’t just Biden’s age that is tanking him. He is underwater on all the top issues of concern to voters. Voters are looking back fondly on the Trump years. The Biden administration thinks voters are stupid. Their gaslighting days are over. 

The Democrats are in disarray. That is fine by me. They made this mess and now they have to come to terms with it. Biden insists today that he will not drop out of the race. He is listening to his family who are telling him to stay in the race. They need him in the office for maximum perks. Hunter Biden is sitting in on top-level meetings. I thought that Biden didn’t approve of convicted felons in the White House. Oh well.

This is the story until the Democrat convention – will Biden stay or will he go? For now, he stays. And, Kamala is in the wings, ready to take control. 

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