The LNP holds Fadden on a margin of 10.6 per cent and has put up Gold Coast City Councillor Cameron Caldwell as its candidate.
Labor candidate Letitia Del Fabbro increased the party’s vote by 3.6 percentage points at the last election in 2022, but Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has admitted the odds are against the nursing educator, running in LNP heartland in a federal by-election.
“The Aston result sent a huge shockwave through the coalition,” Nine political editor Charles Croucher said.
“A loss in Fadden would be an earthquake.
“Both sides believe the seat will stay with the coalition and deliver Peter Dutton a much needed win.
”We’re a long way out from the next election, however there are plenty of coalition MPs with tighter margins than Fadden. They’ll be watching on with interest.
“Many in Labor say if they can eat into the LNP’s margin in the seat, it will be a good result.”
The by-election would also be an “interesting test case” on electorate sentiment in wake of the Robodebt findings, Croucher said.
“Let’s remember why we’re having this by-election,” Albanese said while on the Gold Coast launching the by-election last month.
“Stuart Robert is resigning from parliament having presided over one of the most shocking and cruel failures in the history of Australian politics: robodebt.
“Ripping the humanity out of human services. Stripping the social justice from social security. Targeting vulnerable people and bragging about it.
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“That’s the sort of person Peter Dutton thought was good enough for his shadow ministry, and that’s the sort of candidate the LNP thought was good enough for your community.”
Opposition leader Dutton has attempted to frame the Indigenous Voice as a key issue in Fadden, in an effort to shift focus away from Robert.
“It’s an opportunity to send the government a message in relation to cost of living… and also on the Voice.
“I think there will be a lot of people in Fadden who want to send the prime minister a very clear message that they’re not happy with his Canberra Voice proposal, and they’re not happy that he’s continuing to keep details from Australians in relation to how the Voice will operate.”
Fadden stretches from Labrador and Gaven on the Gold Coast, north to the Logan River, mostly east of the Pacific Highway, encompassing the affluent coastal suburbs of Paradise Point, Hope Island and Sovereign Islands, the booming growth suburbs of Coomera and Pimpama and semi-rural areas of Stapylton, Alberton and Steiglitz.
Labor has only won the seat once in 1983, which it then lost in 1984 with a redistribution of boundaries that shifted the seat further south into the Gold Coast.
Decent swings towards Labor and the Greens were seen across the state’s south-east at the last election, with the latter picking up three seats in Brisbane.
But it was not enough to topple the LNP from its safe Gold Coast seats of Fadden, Forde, Moncrieff, McPherson, and Wright.
The Greens and a slew of minor parties and independents are also running for the seat.
There are the candidates contesting the Fadden by-election, listed in the order they will appear on the ballot paper.
- Letitia Del Fabbro – Labor (contested the 2022 election in Fadden)
- Scott Turner – Greens (contested the 2022 election in the seat of McPherson)
- Chris Simpson – Democrats
- Sandy Roach – One Nation (contested the 2022 election in Fadden)
- Marnie Laree Davis – Indigenous – Aboriginal Party
- Suzette Luyken – Legalise Cannabis
- Quentin Bye – Sustainable Australia
- Kevin Young – Independent
- Belinda Jones – Independent
- Stewart Brooker – Independent (contested the 2022 election in Fadden)
- Jan Pukallus – Citizens Party
- Cameron Caldwell – Liberal National
- James Taylor – Federation Party
Early voting opened Monday July 3 and runs until Friday July 14.
Postal vote applications must be received by the AEC by 6pm on Wednesday July 12.
