The mid-decade redrawing of congressional districts, once unheard of, is about to become commonplace.
In 2003, after Texas Republicans gained control of the legislature, they set about the task of creating a permanent majority by gerrymandering several safe Democratic seats out of existence. The result was a map that crammed Democratic districts into urban areas while Republicans took the rest.
There was nothing illegal about it. The Constitution requires congressional districts to be redrawn once every decade, but it is silent about redrawing them at any other time.
Donald Trump has been lobbying Texas Gov. Greg Abbott to redraw the current Texas congressional map, which was created in 2020 to give the GOP five seats to pad the paper-thin Republican majority in Congress.
Naturally, Democrats are outraged. Up steps California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who will right this terrible wrong done to his party by gerrymandering at least five Republican-held seats in the Golden State.
Some other states have also indicated the possibility of a mid-decade redistricting battle. New York, already with 18-8 Democratic seats over Republicans, is seriously considering a change.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is considering a census redo to add GOP seats.
Ohio must redraw its map after the 2022 map failed to pass the legislature. It will be difficult for either party to gain an advantage there. But Illinois would give the Democrats an even more lopsided advantage, given that 14 out of 17 Democrats already represent the state.
But the main event is Texas vs. California, and Texas has already redrawn a map and will try to ram it through the legislature in the current special session that ends August 19.
The current congressional partisan split is 25-13 in favor of Republicans. The proposed map would give the GOP five extra seats.
Washington Post:
Democrats appear to have few ways to stop the GOP’s plans. Some have talked about boycotting the special session to prevent either chamber or both from having a quorum to take action until the special session ends. But Abbott could call another.Republican state Rep. Todd Hunter, the bill’s author, dismissed concerns about how quickly lawmakers are moving. He said they’ve have been discussing the possibility for months.
“Don’t be surprised,” he said. “The topic has been there.”
Hunter acknowledged that the lines were being redrawn “for partisan purposes,” which he said is allowed by the U.S. Supreme Court. He said a law firm was consulted as the map was being drawn.
“I’m telling you,” he said. “I’m not beating around the bush.”
California’s redistricting will be more complicated. According to the Texas Tribune, the new map would target Republican Reps. Ken Calvert, Darrell Issa, Kevin Kiley, Doug LaMalfa, and David Valadao.
Once approved by the Democratic-controlled California Legislature, where Newsom has been successfully lobbying lawmakers for weeks, the maps would likely be put to California voters in a statewide ballot measure. The referendum plan is subject to change and has yet to receive final approval from Newsom, who has also publicly suggested the Legislature could change the maps without voter approval.
California has an independent redistricting commission that was enshrined in the state’s constitution. But those close to the process believe maps passed by way of a ballot measure or the Legislature’s approval would withstand legal scrutiny because the independent commission is only tasked with drawing new lines once every decade — leaving the process for mid-decade redistricting open, supporters argue.
This is not a new idea. Representatives for Newsom and key House Democrats have been meeting for weeks to discuss possible Democratic responses to Texas’ redistricting plan, The Texas Tribune previously reported.
Drawing new congressional maps is a fraught business, as New York Democrats found out. In 2020, the Empire State passed a constitutional amendment creating a bipartisan commission to redraw congressional district maps. The Democrats listened carefully to the testimony. The bipartisan commission worked hard and drew a nice map. However, the Democrats then threw out this map and drew their own, which would leave the GOP with just 4 seats out of 27 in Congress.
Outraged Republicans took the case to court, and the state Supreme Court ruled that a new map, drawn by a special “master” appointed by the court, would be used for the 2022 election. It turned to gold for the GOP, which won 4 seats after the courts drew the map.
It couldn’t last. Another state court tossed the GOP map and forced cartographers to draw a third map. After all of that, Republicans ended up with eight seats in the House, the same number they had before all the hullabaloo.
Texas Republicans are taking advantage of a movement by Hispanics toward the GOP by redrawing several districts to make them more Hispanic. If they’re figuring correctly, Texas Republicans should strike gold next November.
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