When Kamala Harris became the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party, it undoubtedly caused a jolt of enthusiasm for her party, which had been looking at a landslide defeat with Joe Biden on top of the ticket. She took the lead in the polls as well as in the political markets.
Harris had as much as a seven-point lead in Polymarket in the days leading up to the Democratic National Convention. Between the wall-to-wall glowing coverage from the media and the convention coverage, Harris would maintain that lead, if not expand on it.
However, the lead she had before the convention is gone. It’s not only been wiped up, but as of the morning of the third day of the convention, Donald Trump has also regained the lead. By the second day of the convention, Trump had a one-point lead. As of this writing, he has taken a five-point Polymarket lead over Harris.
Harris had a 7-point lead in @Polymarket last week. pic.twitter.com/64qbEPPPbD
— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) August 21, 2024
Rich Baris, the director of Big Data Poll, found this to be an extraordinary shift, considering the timing.
Why are Donald Trump’s odds of winning the presidential election getting better during the DNC?
That’s so weird.
— Rich Baris The People’s Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) August 20, 2024
It is an absolutely fair question to ask why this is happening during the week of Kamala’s convention. A big part of it is that last week, Kamala unveiled her key economic agenda, and it was nothing short of a disaster, drawing criticism from both sides of the political spectrum.
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Her most contentious proposal, a federal ban on “price-gouging,” sparked outrage even within her own party. When Kamala tried to explain how she would fund her plans, things went from bad to worse. She delivered one of her trademark word salads, repeatedly insisting that there would be a “return on investment” for her policies — as if the costs would magically cover themselves.
As if that wasn’t enough, the Harris-Walz campaign announced on Monday that Harris would raise the corporate tax rate to 28% if elected. And now, Harris is pushing for a 45% capital gains tax on long-term investments and a 25% tax on unrealized gains.
Kamala’s policies so far
Price Controls
28% corporate tax
44.6% capital gains tax
25% tax on unrealized gains— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 20, 2024
Of course, how many people pay attention to the nitty gritty of economic policy? Perhaps a more influential factor in Kamala’s decline in Polymarket is that the people watching it aren’t buying what the Democrats are selling. For all the talk about “hope” and “joy,” there is a ton of negativity coming out of this convention and an unhealthy obsession with abortion that simply doesn’t align with the mainstream of the nation.
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