RALEIGH, N.C. — Though simply making the playoffs became an all-consuming quest for the Islanders, remember that the organization in no way would have settled for a first-round exit when the season started six months ago.
When the 2021-22 season ended in ashes — with the Islanders missing the playoffs for the first time since 2018 — the talk was not about just returning the playoffs, but contending for a Stanley Cup championship.
“Just not happy with how the season went and where we’re at,” Mathew Barzal said 352 days ago Monday. “Want to be competing for a Stanley Cup every year.”
In truth, 82 regular-season games did not provide a strong verdict about whether or not the Islanders are well-equipped to do so, mostly because Barzal played just six games next to Bo Horvat before he was injured.
Game 1 on Monday of the first-round playoff series against the Hurricanes — a series in which the Islanders are +175 underdogs in Vegas — will be the seventh time they will play together since Horvat was acquired on Jan. 30 from Vancouver.
This Islanders’ core players have a history of raising their games in the postseason.
The team twice made runs to the conference finals — in 2019-20 and 2020-21 — after finishing sixth and fourth in the division in those seasons.
If another run is in the cards, it will follow a similar formula: strong goaltending and a deep, experienced roster with the ability to grind down opposition, leading to upsets.
“We want to be in the spotlight,” Barzal said Friday, “and that’s what the playoffs is.”
Standing in the Islanders’ way is a Carolina team coming off a second-straight 50-win season, and third-straight divisional crown.
The Post’s Ethan Sears breaks down how the Islanders and Hurricanes matchup:
Goaltending
If the Islanders win the series, this will be one of the biggest reasons why.
Ilya Sorokin is their trump card over nearly every team in the playoff field, and the Hurricanes are no exception.
After playing almost every game for the Islanders down the stretch, Sorokin is expected to start every game in the playoffs, with good reason.
His .924 save percentage was third in the league, behind only the Bruins’ Linus Ullmark and the Wild’s Filip Gustavsson, but with context, it might be even more impressive.
Sorokin played more than 1,200 more minutes than Gustavsson and more than 700 more than Ullmark.
According to Natural Stat Trick, he also faced 1.06 more high-danger shots per 60 minutes than Ullmark and 1.87 more than Gustavsson.
He’ll deservingly get a Vezina Trophy nomination this season, and should probably garner some first-place votes.
As for the Hurricanes, coach Rod Brind’Amour declined to answer who will start Game 1 between Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta.
Neither, though, has a save percentage better than .910 and both were prone to struggles this season.
Andersen had a negative-3.5 goals saved above expected, per MoneyPuck.
Pyotr Kochetkov could be an option if both falter.
Edge: Islanders
Defense
The cliché is that the Islanders are built to win games 3-2.
If that’s the case, then the Hurricanes are built to win 2-1.
Carolina was second in the league in per-game goal prevention, giving up just 2.56 goals per 60 minutes.
The Islanders weren’t far behind, at 2.65, but their defense corps has a major question mark hanging over it because of Alexander Romanov’s upper-body injury.
Romanov has already been ruled out for Game 1, and the timeline on the 23-year-old Russian’s return isn’t clear.
Without him, the Islanders will be heavily dependent on their top pair of Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock, who could put in major minutes against Carolina’s top line.
The Hurricanes have more depth in their top six, with Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns making up a dangerous top pair and Brady Skjei and Brent Pesce not far behind statistically.
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Even the third pair of deadline acquisition Shayne Gostisbehere and Jalen Chatfield has impressed, with a 57.14 goals for rate and a 69.15 expected goals percentage, per Natural Stat Trick.
If Romanov can return, it would make all the difference to an Islanders team that looks as if it will be heavily dependent on Sebastian Aho and Samuel Bolduc on its left side.
Otherwise, the ’Canes look more complete here.
Edge: Hurricanes
Forwards
Neither of these teams is anything near overwhelming on offense, with Carolina ranking 15th in per-game scoring and the Islanders 22nd.
There are two pieces of good news for the Islanders, though: Barzal will be back for Game 1 after he missed the last two months with a suspected knee injury, and the Islanders outscored the Hurricanes at five-on-five by two goals over the 82-game regular season.
The Islanders’ top line of Anders Lee, Bo Horvat and Barzal didn’t play together much before Barzal’s injury, but when they did, it was quite encouraging.
The second line of Pierre Engvall, Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri has also been firing on all cylinders, outscoring opponents 15-4 since being put together.
As for Carolina’s top six, Andrei Svechnikov’s ACL tear was a massive blow.
Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis make up a formidable top line, but the projected second line of Martin Necas, Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Stefan Noesen has played just 33:07 together this season, per Natural Stat Trick.
The Hurricanes’ matchup unit of Jordan Martinook, Jordan Staal and Jesper Fast is a secret weapon this time of year, but then again, so is the Islanders’ Identity Line of Matt Martin, Casey Cizikas and Cal Clutterbuck.
Edge: Islanders
Special teams
Remember how we said not to expect much scoring?
This is why.
Only three playoff teams have a worse power play than Carolina, which converted on just 19.76 percent of its five-on-four chances this year and gave up 11 shorthanded goals.
But no team is worse on the power play than the Islanders, who finished the season at an abominable 15.77 percent.
Both teams, though, do excel on the penalty kill.
The Hurricanes are second only to Boston there, killing 84.38 percent of penalties, while the Islanders rank ninth at 82.19 percent.
The Islanders do have a reason for optimism, though, due to Barzal’s return.
They played just six complete games with Barzal and Horvat together on the power play, but converted six of 17 power-play chances over that stretch.
We’re not expecting a full-on renaissance, but even a slight improvement would be a big deal in a department in which Carolina currently has a marginal upper hand.
Edge: Hurricanes
Coaching
Lane Lambert did an admirable job in his first season as the Islanders’ bench boss, overcoming a fair amount of struggles before the All-Star break to mount a charge in the standings sans Barzal and get the Islanders back into the playoffs.
That said, Lambert will be coaching his first NHL playoff game on Monday while Brind’Amour will be coaching his 49th.
Brind’Amour, the former Stanley Cup-winning Hurricanes captain, is widely regarded as one of the league’s best motivators and he won the Jack Adams Award as the NHL’s top coach in 2020-21.
Edge: Hurricanes
Prediction
It’s hard to know what the Islanders’ ceiling will be with Barzal back, and harder to know what the series would look like if Romanov returns.
But the Hurricanes were the better team all season and beat the Islanders without much trouble in the last three games between the clubs.
They’re the favorites until proven otherwise.
Carolina in six.
