How Coors Field factor may shape your fantasy baseball draft

The prospect of playing 81 games a season at Coors Field automatically makes a player an attractive fantasy commodity.

Before he joined the Rockies in 2022, Kris Bryant wasn’t considered a top-10 fantasy third baseman. After signing with Colorado, his stock soared and he was drafted as a top-five third baseman. (Ultimately, it was a costly pick because he played just 42 games.)

The Coors Field Effect does, at times, make it feel like drafting a Rockies player is like playing fantasy with beer goggles — when they play at home, no one looks better, but when they’re on the road, they often look far less appealing.

For example: C.J. Cron hit .326 in 69 games at Coors in 2021 and .303 over 73 home games in 2022. He hit .235 and .214, respectively, away from home in those two years. Brendan Rodgers hit .218 with a .588 OPS on the road last year, but hit .313 with a .875 OPS at home. Elias Diaz hit .270 with a .783 OPS at Coors Field in 2022, but hit .186 with a .517 OPS on the road.

Splits for all Rockies players, however, are not that extreme. Look at players like Hall of Famer Larry Walker, Todd Helton, Nolan Arenado, DJ LeMahieu, Carlos Gonzalez, Michael Cuddyer, Troy Tulowitzki and Trevor Story. Their numbers at Coors were better, but they were far from useless on the road.

Heck, Charlie Blackmon, with the Rockies since 2011, has hit .334 with a .419 slugging percentage and .949 OPS at Coors, but still owns a respectable .260 average with a .419 slugging percentage and .735 OPS on the road,

The Coors Field factor is ultimately what makes 21-year-old shortstop Ezequiel Tovar, whom Baseball America ranks as the No. 17 prospect, so intriguing. He has not yet been crowned the Opening Day shortstop, but with an average draft position of 235.45, according to Fantasy Alarm, he has the tools and opportunity to become a late-round fantasy steal.

Colorado Rockies' rookie Ezequiel Tovar is expected to be the team's starting shortstop this season. — Colorado Rockies rookie Ezequiel Tovar is expected to be the team’s starting shortstop this season.

Over four seasons in the minors, Tovar showed an ability to hit for average, steal bases and provide some pop. In 283 games, he hit .284 with 31 homers, 149 RBIs, 184 runs scored, 74 stolen bases and .782 OPS. That includes hitting .318 with 13 homers, 47 RBIs, 39 runs, 17 stolen bases and a .932 OPS in 66 Double-A games last year. He also hit .287, hit 15 homers and stole 24 bases in 104 games at two levels in 2021.

Tovar reached the majors in 2022, but played just nine games. Despite hitting .300 at Coors Field (it was just 10 at-bats), he hit .211 overall with a 25.7 percent whiff rate. It was far too small of a sample size. The same can be said about his numbers this spring. He entered Friday hitting .235 with one homer, three RBIs and a .762 OPS this spring, but one must remember that spring training stats mean about as much as receiving medical advice from a locksmith. (Proof: Edmund Sosa, who has eight career homers in 202 big-league games, entered Friday tied for the spring lead in big flies.)

Tovar is not being drafted as your top fantasy shortstop. He is middle infield insurance who has the tools and opportunity to make an impact, especially with that hitter haven he gets to call home. Some may want to wait until Tovar proves himself or is named the starting shortstop, but Roto Rage suggests taking a shot no matter what kind of league you’re in. At his current price, you’re looking at a 20th-round selection in 12-team leagues — a perfect spot to select young player with upside.

There are other young shortstops, including the Yankees’ Anthony Volpe (316.8), Cincinnati’s Elly De La Cruz (377.96) and Arizona’s Jordan Lawlar (544.3), who may be better than Tovar at some point, but that doesn’t matter. What matters is the fact that Tovar has the tools, the opportunity and, most importantly, Coors Field.