We may not have a Cinderella, but we still need our inner Big Bird.
For the first time ever, the Sweet 16 is represented by power conferences only. But this round still has championship pretenders, even if they come in the form of brand names.
This year just requires a bit more analysis to decipher which teams are not like the others.
At first glance, Purdue looks the part. The No. 4 seed is a traditional program from a major conference that is a year removed from reaching the national championship game.
But in my eyes, the Boilermakers are a farce and are prime to get exposed, as they are an eight-point underdog against top-seeded Houston.
Purdue has caught some bracket luck. It opened against High Point, which was likely the worst No. 13 seed. Yale, Grand Canyon, and even Akron have better measurables.
According to KenPom, High Point’s defense ranks 226th, and thus, Purdue’s offense could score at will.
The Boilermakers then drew a 12-seed in McNeese State, which upset fifth-seeded Clemson in a strange game. The Cowboys barely showed up against Purdue, perhaps because their coach had already agreed to deal with a new employer.
But Purdue now faces the nation’s top-ranked defense. And while an anemic offense occasionally has caused Houston’s early tourney exits, Purdue does not fit the mold.
The Boilermakers rank 55th in defensive efficiency, which should allow Houston’s 10th-ranked offense to score enough to cover the spread.
That is why I am backing the Cougars and putting my 35-20 ATS record in this Post section on the line.
The Cougars lost in last year’s Sweet 16, but All-American point guard Jamal Shead suffered an ankle injury and missed the entire second half in the loss to Duke. In 2021 and 2022, Houston was eliminated by teams that had a defense ranked in the top 25.
The 2023 NCAA Tournament provided the anomaly. The Cougars lost to Miami in the Sweet 16 after the Hurricanes somehow scored 89 points against Houston’s elite defense.
The Canes shot 51.7 percent from the field, including 44 percent from behind the arc. If Purdue can somehow manage that, then so be it.
Betting on College Basketball?
But ultimately, I think point guard and Big Ten Player of the Year Braden Smith will face too much resistance and athleticism, bogging down an offense that often seems too methodical and deliberate.
I envision too many empty possessions to keep this as a single-digit game.
The Boilermakers have faded down the stretch, losing six of their final nine games, before catching the right tourney opponents. It’s time for the bracket to trim the fat.
The play: Houston -8 (-110, Caesars Sportsbook)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
