The man with the worst odds to win the Home Run Derby on Monday night may have the biggest advantage.
Orioles backstop Adley Rutschman will enter the contest to little fanfare, having hit just 11 homers entering Friday, but the environment he’ll walk into should give him a good chance to make a run at his first-ever derby crown.
T-Mobile Park in Seattle, which will host All-Star Weekend this year, isn’t exactly a hitter’s park.
Statcast rates it as the worst in the league overall and the sixth-least friendly for home runs.
Just 92 round-trippers have been hit in Seattle this season, which ranks 21st in the league.
Home Run Derby pick
First Bet Offer: Get up to $1,000 Paid Back in Bonus Bets if You Don’t Win! with code NPBONUS
21+. New customers only. NY, AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. T&C apply
BetMGM Poker: Up to $1,000 First Deposit Match + Up to $75 Tournament Play
21+. New customers only. NJ, MI, PA Only. Terms and Conditions apply.
On the surface, it doesn’t appear a right-handed hitter has a distinct advantage.
The park is 331 feet to left, 378 to left-center, 380 to right-center and 326 to right.
According to Statcast, the home run factor for a lefty is 91 — or nine points lower than average — and for a right-handed hitter it’s 90.
Read Related Also: Kamala Harris Gets Scorched After Going Full Thanos
At night, things change a bit.
In night games played at T-Mobile Park this year, the home run factor has been elevated to 98 for right-handed hitters and 110 for lefties.
For context, Coors Field has a home run factor of 108. That would seem to make this a friendly environment for the only lefty in the field, Rutschman.
While seven of Rutschman’s 11 homers have gone to left or left-center, it’s likely that he could be a bigger home run threat if he wouldn’t spray the ball so much.
Rutschman’s 35.1 percent pull rate for the year actually comes in around two points lower than the league average, and his opposite-field hit rate is over six points clear of the league average.
Rutschman (20/1, BetMGM) won’t have any reason to try and go the opposite way during the Home Run Derby, with the shortest way out of the park down the right field line, and I’m excited to see what that means for his output.
Together with a somewhat friendly park for left-handed power hitters, I think he clearly has better than the roughly five percent chance to win this contest that oddsmakers would give him.
Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting
While Pete Alonso once again is the favorite (+275) following years of dominance at this event, it’s worth noting that there are actually two players in the field with more expected homers, according to Statcast.
Alonso stands fifth in the league with 22.3, Adolis Garcia (+600) is fourth with 22.5 and Luis Robert (+450) is third with 24.3.
On top of that, while Alonso has hit more fly balls this season, his hard-hit rate is down four points from where it was last year.
The Mets first baseman is a deserving favorite at this event, but with Rutschman coming in with a bit of an advantage and two guys in the field with more expected homers, he could certainly be given a good run for his crown.
I’d look elsewhere in this market to find value.
