The Heisman Trophy is not an equal opportunity award.
Since 2000, 19 of the 23 winners have played quarterback.
And of those 19 quarterbacks, 11 played for the national title, two played in the College Football Playoff semifinals and two more played in New Year’s six bowl games.
Suffice it to say, identifying quarterbacks on top teams is where you should begin your Heisman research.
Based upon preseason rankings from ESPN, Athlon and Phil Steele, there are 10 programs in the mix for the College Football Playoff with quarterbacks worthy of Heisman consideration.
The list starts with the reigning Heisman winner, USC’s Caleb Williams (+600).
Williams was nothing short of magnificent in his first season with the Trojans, tossing 42 touchdown passes against just five interceptions.
Ohio State’s Archie Griffin remains the only two-time winner of the Heisman, which means Williams will be competing against his peers and voters’ squeamishness over awarding back-to-back Heismans.
Behind Williams on the futures board are three quarterbacks from teams desperate to declare themselves “back.”
LSU’s Jayden Daniels (14/1), Texas’ Quinn Ewers (14/1), and Florida State’s Jordan Travis (18/1) all present decent value leading teams with serious CFP aspirations.
For perspective on those potential payouts, Bryce Young (10/1) and Caleb Williams (+800) entered their Heisman seasons with shorter odds.
The final tier of quarterback candidates comes in the 20/1 to 35/1 range.
Notre Dame’s Sam Hartman and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy can both be found in the market at 20/1.
Read Related Also: Starbucks changes its tone on Pride Month displays, heeds a cautionary tale
Georgia’s Carson Beck has the unenviable task of replacing Stetson Bennett and has opened at 22/1 to become the program’s third Heisman winner.
And finally, we have a trio of passers light on experience, but primed for breakout seasons — Clemson’s Cade Klubnik (25/1), Ohio State’s Kyle McCord (25/1) and Penn State’s Drew Allar (35/1).
Bonus points if you noticed that an Alabama quarterback isn’t listed.
Since 2013, Alabama has sent four quarterbacks to New York for the Heisman presentation and one came back with the trophy (Young in 2021). So why isn’t an Alabama quarterback atop the board this summer?
Tyler Buchner (60/1), Ty Simpson (60/1) and Jalen Milroe (100/1) will enter camp in the midst of a fierce quarterback battle.
Placing a future on any of them is akin to a two-leg parlay, hoping they can first secure the starting gig then outperform expectations en route to a Heisman Trophy.
Betting on College Football?
Buchner, a transfer from Notre Dame, has limited experience due to an AC sprain in his non-throwing shoulder last fall that cost him most of last regular season.
When he returned for the Fighting Irish’s bowl game against South Carolina, he showed off his ceiling (five total touchdowns) and floor (three interceptions) in the same game. Simpson (five-star) and Milroe (four-star) have the pedigree to surprise this fall, but Buchner’s arrival indicates that neither overly impressed the coaching staff this spring.
Alabama is just one major power with questions at quarterback.
Ohio State, Georgia and LSU have leaders in their respective quarterback battles, but don’t rule out Devin Brown in Columbus, Brock Vandagriff in Athens or Garrett Nussmeier in Baton Rouge.
Nussmeier, in particular, was impressive at the end of last season.
All three are available at 80/1. Should any of them win the starting job in August, their odds would likely fall to 20/1 overnight.
I’ll be adding Brown to my futures portfolio because he represents too much value at 80/1 with the job still open at Ohio State. I’m also bullish on Penn State making its first CFP, which is why I’ve grabbed Allar at 35/1.
