Earlier this week, Donald Trump retook the lead in Nate Silver’s election forecast, with Trump ahead for the first time in a month.
“It was almost inevitably going to happen at some point, given how close the forecast has been to 50/50 since Kamala Harris took over for Joe Biden,” Silver lamented on Thursday. “But for the fourth time this cycle, the streams have crossed, and the nominal favorite in the race has changed. Thanks in part to one of the first high-quality national polls in weeks to show him ahead… Donald Trump now has a 50.2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.”
#NEW Nate Silver 2024 election forecast update
🔴 Trump: 50.2% [+3]
🔵 Harris: 49.5% [-3.1][+/- over last week] pic.twitter.com/YqUjMXHdrj
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 17, 2024
Trump peaked in Silver’s model on September 9, a day before he debated Kamala Harris. Many on the left poo-poohed Silver’s model when it previously showed Trump ahead, and then many on the right poo-poohed it when Kamala regained the lead. Yet more felt like it was inevitable that Silver’s model would show a coin-flip race.
Perhaps more significant is the latest election forecast from FiveThirtyEight, which hasn’t shown Trump ahead since early August. Trump just took the lead in its latest forecast. “As of 3 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 18, our model gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes. The model gives Harris a 48-in-100 chance,” reports G. Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight.
#NEW – @FiveThirtyEight Forecast (Chance of winning)
September 18
🟦 Harris: 64%
🟥 Trump: 36%October 18
🟥 Trump: 52%
🟦 Harris: 48%
——
Electoral Votes
🟥 Trump: 272 🏆
🟦 Harris: 266
——@Polymarket Senate Odds
🟥 Republicans: 80%Polymarket swing states odds 👇… pic.twitter.com/N0VUKTXRLj
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 18, 2024
“The change in candidate’s fortunes came after a slow drip-drip-drip of polls showed the race tightening across the northern and Sun Belt battlegrounds,” explains Morris. “In our forecast of the popular vote in Pennsylvania, the race has shifted from a 0.6-point lead for Harris on Oct. 1 to a 0.2-point lead for Trump; In Michigan, a 1.8-point Harris lead is now just 0.4 points; And in Wisconsin, a 1.6-point lead for Harris is now an exact tie between the two candidates. Meanwhile, Arizona and Georgia have flipped from toss-ups to ‘Lean Republican’ states.”
Morris quickly shifted to tamp down the freaking out from FiveThirtyEight’s left-wing readers:
Still, a word of caution: You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast “flipping” to Trump, but it’s important to remember that a 52-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris — both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate. While Trump has undeniably gained some ground over the past couple weeks, a few good polls for Harris could easily put her back in the “lead” tomorrow. Our overall characterization of the race — that it’s a toss-up — remains unchanged.
Forecasters are trying to take the polls and weight them based on various factors to account for various fundamentals impacting the race. While it’s not an exact science, it’s worth noting that FiveThirtyEight has historically been bearish on Trump—even when Nate Silver’s model showed Trump ahead. For FiveThirtyEight to now flip and show Trump leading is no small development. Frankly, both forecasts are telling us what many of us have been observing for a while now: that Trump, indeed, has the momentum in the final weeks of the campaign.
