The Greens are on track to lose the three Queensland seats they gained in the 2022 election in a significant blow for the party, but they have had a triumph in Victoria.
While the Greens have seen a miniscule increase in their primary vote, rising from 12 per cent in 2022 to a mere 12.67 per cent, their support in the three Queensland seats that they won last election — Griffith, Ryan, and Brisbane — has sharply declined.
If current trends hold across the seats, the outcome will mark a stark contrast to the historic four-seat victory the Greens secured in the state last election, when Queensland was even dubbed ‘Greens-land’.
Brisbane is set to be taken by ALP candidate Madonna Jarrett as 50.35 per cent of votes have been counted. LNP’s Trevor Evans is narrowly trailing behind at 33 per cent.
Greens incumbent Stephen Bates is polling third with 27.1 per cent, marking a devastating result for the party.
In Griffith, figures suggest Labor is poised to reclaim the seat from the Greens in a tight contest—an unexpected shift given the Greens held it with a 10.4 per cent margin.
Labor is leading with 35.1 per cent of votes and the Greens have 33.3 per cent with 40.99 per cent of votes having been counted.
This signals a tragic loss for Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather, whose campaign revolved around him being a renter and connecting with young Australians.
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Meanwhile, the seat of Ryan remains too close to call, despite 45.34 per cent counted.
Liberal candidate Maggie Forrest is polling just 1.5 per cent ahead of incumbent Elizabeth Watson-Brown, with Labor’s Rebecca Hack sitting at 27.9 per cent.
Following the night’s disappointing results, speeches from the three Queensland Greens MPs were cancelled.
Max Chandler-Mather, Stephen Bates, and Elizabeth Watson-Brown had been scheduled to address supporters around 9pm at a crowded event in Woolloongabba in inner Brisbane.
Labor had heavily targeted the state after entering the race holding just five Queensland seats, while the Liberals also contested several key electorates, creating a three-way contest the Greens have struggled to dominate.
The warning signs were already present during the recent Queensland state election, where despite maintaining their overall vote share, the Greens lost the seat of South Brisbane and saw a swing against them in their only remaining seat.
On a more positive front, the Greens have claimed victory in the Victorian seat of Wills, with 50.24 per cent of the vote counted.
The result represents a strong 10.78 percent swing toward the party, delivering a significant win in the electorate.
Greens candidate Samantha Ratnam defeated Labor incumbent Peter Khalil by a margin of 3.5 per cent.
Greens leader Adam Bandt is expected to hold onto his Melbourne seat, where he leads with 43.3 percent of the vote, putting him 12.3 per cent ahead of Labor candidate Sarah Witty.
The question that remains is what caused the Greens to lose grip of the three Queensland seats.
The Greens have expanded on their policy framework since the 2022 election, focusing on economic inequality, dental care and housing affordability crisis.
Trying to set themselves apart from Labor, they pushed for rent caps and reduction of tax benefits for property investors.
Their stance led to a prolonged standoff with Labor in Parliament, where they repeatedly delayed the passage of the government’s housing bills—causing significant frustration within the government.
Earlier this year, both the government and opposition figures accused the Greens of using the Israel-Palestine conflict for political gain by spreading misinformation and encouraging antisemitism and extremist rhetoric.
