Voters in the Gold Coast seat are heading to the polls, which opened at 8am, to pick a replacement for Stuart Robert following the opposition MP’s resignation.
The Liberals have put up Gold Coast City Councillor Cameron Caldwell as its candidate, while Labor is once again running Letitia Del Fabbro after she increased the party’s vote by 3.6 per cent in the seat at the last federal election.
However, Fadden is still firmly in the Liberals’ heartland – it’s never been won by Labor, and even after the swing in 2022, the Coalition retained it on a comfortable 10.6 per cent margin.
While Labor pulled off a shock win at the Aston by-election earlier this year when it picked up the seat after Alan Tudge’s resignation, Albanese doesn’t think Fadden will follow suit.
“Traditionally, there are swings away from a government of around about four to five per cent in a by-election,” he said on Friday.
“Fadden, and that northern part of the Gold Coast have only ever returned LNP members… but our candidate is a great candidate; she’s out there – I was very happy to launch her campaign and the Labor Party are running so that people have that choice.
“But I don’t expect anything like the Aston by-election result.
“That was an extraordinary result, the first time in 100 years that the government have won a seat off the Opposition.”
Some Labor figures believe eating into the LNP’s margin would represent something of a victory, but Opposition Leader Peter Dutton says he isn’t worried about Fadden’s margin – just as long as it remains in Liberal hands.
“I’ll be happy if Cameron Caldwell is elected as the next member for Fadden… I want somebody who has the proven experience to deliver for local residents and that’s exactly what Cameron does,” he said on Thursday.
“For 12 years, he has been a local champion, somebody who has rolled his sleeves up, worked hard with families, helped them through difficult periods, helped community groups, helped people with significant issues.”
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However, one factor that may complicate matters for the LNP is robodebt.
“Let’s remember why we’re having this by-election,” Albanese said while on the Gold Coast launching the by-election last month.
“Stuart Robert is resigning from parliament having presided over one of the most shocking and cruel failures in the history of Australian politics: robodebt…
“That’s the sort of person Peter Dutton thought was good enough for his shadow ministry, and that’s the sort of candidate the LNP thought was good enough for your community.”
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Dutton, for his part, has said his party takes responsibility for its mistakes in launching the scheme.
“There’s obviously lessons to be learnt about the way that the system was designed, and that’s what the Royal Commission has concentrated on,” he told 2GB on Thursday.
“We should learn those lessons, and the program’s obviously been redesigned since then.”
Voting opened today at 8am and will close at 6pm.
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