The New York Yankees will open their 2023 campaign with a rare visit from the San Francisco Giants on Thursday afternoon.
With Gerrit Cole on the mound, it’s no surprise that the Bronx Bombers are a sizable favorite over the Giants, who will counter with Logan Webb.
While the Yankees are priced as one of the favorites to win the World Series and the second-choice in the American League, the Giants are projected to be in a fight for a Wild Card spot in the National League.
San Francisco is +5000 to win the World Series and the eighth-favorite to win the pennant at +2500 on BetMGM.
Yankees vs. Giants prediction
(1:05 p.m. ET. YES Network)
One trend always brought up in betting circles around this time of year is that Opening Day has been kind to the chalk in Major League Baseball over the last two decades.
According to Action Labs, MLB favorites have gone 169-103 for a 62.1% win rate in season-openers since 2005.
If you bet $100 on the chalk in every one of those contests, you’d have netted $1,497, which is a 5.5% return on investment.
Even with that trend in your back pocket, this price does seem about right on Thursday afternoon.
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Cole is coming off a down year in 2022, but his numbers were still terrific, and projection models predict him to trend toward the pitcher we saw during his salad days, should he stay healthy.
He should match up pretty well with the Giants, who ended 2022 with the ninth-highest strikeout rate and were just about average in terms of hitting home runs last season.
Those numbers play towards Cole’s strength and away from his weakness.
Similarly, Logan Webb should match up well against a Yankees team that is built to hit dingers.
Only three pitchers did a better job suppressing longballs than Webb in 2022, and only one (Framber Valdez) boasted a higher groundball rate than the Giants’ ace.
The recipe for containing this Yankee offense is to keep the ball in the yard, and Webb sets up well to do just that.
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The weather and starting pitching matchup should provide a decent path to success for under bettors, but rather than back the full-game total, I’ll isolate Cole and Webb with a play on the First-5-Innings Under 3.5.
Yankees vs. Giants pick
F5 Under 3.5 (+100, BetMGM)
