The fantasy community must have been naughty this year. Why else we would get coal in our Christmas stocking — in the form of a Jalen Hurts injury?
The Eagles quarterback is sidelined this week with a shoulder injury. It isn’t considered serious, and with the playoffs locked up and a firm grip on the NFC’s No. 1 seed, it makes logical sense for Philadelphia to be cautious with its QB.
But c’mon! Don’t they understand we are in the fantasy playoffs, that they are being selfish focusing on their own playoffs? I mean, he is the top overall scorer in most formats! Why be so cruel as to rob us of those pivotal points?
Unless … Look, if you have Hurts, it stinks. Like, stinks really bad. How bad? Well, the best waiver option might be hiding behind a mustache — Hurts’ replacement, Gardner Minshew. Otherwise, you’re looking at the shadow of what used to be Russell Wilson, 49ers third-stringer Brock Purdy, Taylor Heinicke, and worse.
Now, Minshew is not going to deliver league-leading fantasy production like Hurts. But let’s try to isolate just what kind of production we can expect. In two games with the Eagles last season, Minshew averaged 214 yards passing (not good) but had four total touchdowns and one interception (not terrible).
That is a small sample size. What if we go back to his Jacksonville days? He has 22 starts in his entire career. In those games, he has averaged 243.5 passing yards, 1.7 touchdowns and 0.5 interceptions. That would produce a weekly expected fantasy total of 15.5. (We’re not including his rushing numbers, since what little he has is almost perfectly offset by fumbles.)
That puts him right in line with Tom Brady and Derek Carr, just below Jared Goff, but above Aaron Rodgers, Rusell Wilson and Deshaun Watson.
To gauge what type of ripple effect we can expect, we’ll need to compare it to Hurts’ production. We’ll just use this year’s stats from Hurts, since he has taken such a leap forward. And we aren’t going to include his rushing numbers, since those don’t directly impact pass-catchers — figure RB Miles Sanders will get a boost without Hurts, just based on volume expectations and higher likelihood for goal-line carries.
Based on Hurts’ passing numbers (248 yards per game, 22 total TDs, five total INTs across 14 games), he is delivering about 15.5 fantasy points per game in the air.
So over Minshew’s career, he routinely has delivered almost exactly the same fantasy passing production per game as Hurts has in his MVP-caliber season. That would suggest holding off on the panic button. A.J. Brown should still be safe to play. DeVonta Smith remains on the Flex radar. And if you’re eager to use Dallas Goedert in his return from a shoulder problem, then don’t let Minshew stop you.
Minshew might not be the Hurts fix you need, but the Madman doesn’t think everyone’s favorite mustached man is going to ruin the rest of your fantasy team.
Big weeks
Daniel Jones QB, Giants, at Vikings (FanDuel $7,400/DraftKings $5,600)
Considering the abundance of bad-weather games, Jones is thrust toward top of fringe QB lists. We like this game to one of the week’s highest scoring, and we like fantasy QBs in high-scoring games.
Kirk Cousins QB, Vikings, vs. Giants (FD $7,700/DK $6,300)
Surprise! It’s the other QB in an expected high-scoring game. Though he might post better passing numbers than Jones, Cousins doesn’t have the same rushing potential.
Tom Brady QB, Buccaneers, at Cardinals (FD $7,500/DK $5,600)
If you’re going to use Brady, this is as good a week as any. Poor pass defense, no weather worries, and he does have some good WRs. Maybe he’ll finally connect with them.
James Cook RB, Bills, at Bears (FD $5,300/DK $4,900)
The wind likely will be a bigger problem here than the cold. It could force both teams to lean on the running game. If that’s the case, Cook could get some extra action behind Devin Singletary, and maybe steal a TD.
Small weaks
Deshaun Watson QB, Browns, vs. Saints (FD $6,800/DK $6,000)
Yeah, it is going to be cold, but there could be wind gusts of up to 60 mph. Breaking: It is hard to pass in those conditions. This just in: Passing helps boosts fantasy QBs. Analysis: Not good for Watson.
Jerick McKinnon RB, Chiefs, vs. Seahawks (FD $7,300/DK $5,900)
Yeah, yeah, he has scored a bunch of TDs recently. But we are reluctant to rely on TDs as primary projection variable. We would kick ourselves if we, for example, started McKinnon over Alvin Kamara in the fantasy playoffs and it blew up in our face.
DeAndre Hopkins WR, Cardinals, vs. Patriots (FD $8,400/DK $7,400)
It might be tough to find a Hopkins replacement in such a tumultuous week, but we would love to find a way to avoid relying on third-string QB Trace McSorley delivering us fantasy results
Mark Andrews TE, Ravens, vs. Falcons (FD $6,400/DK $5,500)
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He hasn’t scored a TD since Week 6 and has averaged just 7.0 in PPR per week since then. Oh, and Tyler Huntley is still his QB this week. Yikes.
Insanity’s Daily Duel
Site: FanDuel
Slate: Sat. main (10 games)
Type: $20 tourney
Top prize: $1M
Pot: $2.5M
Drew’s Crew
QB — Daniel Jones (NYG, at Min) $5,600
RB — Nick Chubb (Cle, vs. NO) $7,700
RB — J.K. Dobbins (Bal, vs. Atl) $5,800
WR — Isaiah Hodgins (NYG, at Min) $4,100
WR —Justin Jefferson (MIN, vs. NYG) 9,300
WR — Terrace Marshall Jr. (Car, vs. Det) $3,600
TE — Travis Kelce (KC, vs. Sea) $8,000
Flex — Olamide Zaccheaus (Atl, at Bal) $3,300
DST — Texans (Hou, at Ten) $2,500
Wilk’s Warriors
QB — Gardner Minshew (Phi, at Dal) $4,800
RB — Dalvin Cook (Min, vs. NYG) $7,200
RB — J.K. Dobbins (Bal, vs. Atl) $5,800
WR — A.J. Brown (Phi, at Dal) $8,100
WR — Darius Slayton (NYG, at Min) $5,200
WR — Byron Pringle (Chi, vs. Buf) $3,100
TE — T.J. Hockenson (Min, vs. NYG) $4,900
Flex — Travis Kelce (KC, vs. Sea) $8,000
DST — Texans (Hou, at Ten) $2,500
For late roster chances, follow @NYPost_Loftis and @NYPost_Roto on Twitter
Season risked: $128
Season winnings: Jarad $65, Drew $27
