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Ahead of the 2024 Presidential election, see how Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are really faring among voters with DailyMail.com’s brilliant poll tracker.
Readers can view who is winning the head-to-head race as well as the situation in the battleground states that will ultimately decide who gets into the White House.
All of the data used in our analysis comes from Harris versus Trump polls collated by DailyMail.com’s pollsters J.L. Partners and FiveThirtyEight.
NATIONAL VOTING INTENTION
DailyMail.com collates national polling data from FiveThirtyEight, which collates dozens of voting surveys carried out each week across the US. We only include head-to-head polls between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, meaning other candidates such as Cornel West and Jill Stein are excluded. This provides a clear snapshot of the national voting intention, or the popular vote. Because of the way US elections work, the leader of this metric won’t necessarily become President.
Individual surveys are represented by dots on the chart. Rolling weekly averages – covering Monday to Sunday – are represented by lines. For the purposes of our graph, Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden for the week beginning July 22.
NATIONAL PROBABILITY OF WINNING
Our probability graph differs to the voting intention because it takes into account numerous factors that could skew the results on the night.
JL Partners, a reputable pollster whose founders were involved in running research for the UK Conservative Government, carries out modelling to assess who is likely to win the race in each state based on current polling. This, as well as historical voting data, economic indicators and approval ratings, is combined by data scientists who then simulate the course of the election thousands of times to calculate the probability of either Trump or Harris becoming President on November 5.
STATE-BY-STATE PREDICTED WINNERS
Using the same methodology as with the national probability, DailyMail.com visualises JL Partners’ predicted results on a state-by-state basis. This shows the areas that are considered Republican or Democrat strongholds, as well as the states that could swing either way on the night.
BATTLEGROUND STATES PROBABILITY OF WINNING
This graph shows the probability model but for seven battleground states that will decide this year’s result. Between Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19) and Wisconsin (10), they have 93 Electoral College votes.
