El Niño’s warmth in the central tropical Pacific Ocean is continuing but is past its peak, and sea surface temperatures are declining, new forecasts indicate.
Sea surface temperatures are expected to return to neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels in the southern hemisphere in autumn 2024.
The majority of model forecasts indicate the IOD – measure as the difference in sea surface temperature between a western pole in the Arabian Sea and an eastern pole in the eastern Indian Ocean – will be neutral until at least April, consistent with its annual cycle, the BOM said.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) – the belt of strong westerly winds that contracts towards Antarctica – is also currently neutral, and forecasts suggest it will remain mostly neutral over the coming fortnight.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) – defined as the major fluctuation in tropical weather on weekly to monthly timescales – is currently over the central Pacific.
Victoria roasts on hottest day of summer
The MJO, characterised as an eastward moving “pulse” of cloud and rainfall near the equator that typically recurs every 30 to 60 days, will likely remain here for the next two weeks.
Global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were highest on record for all respective months between April 2023 and January 2024.
