Post sports gambling editor/producer Erich Richter is in his first season in the Bettor’s Guide.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (-1) over Dallas Cowboys
Week 16 is here, the holidays are in bloom, and football is abundant this Sunday.
A team I’ve been fading all year is going to Miami, and those palm trees aren’t going to be jolly to the Cowboys.
The Dolphins are looking to run the ball down the throats of the Cowboys’ defense, which was just embarrassed by James Cook and the Bills.
The Cowboys rank in the bottom half in the league in yards per carry (4.8 allowed), but don’t be afraid to factor in that they’ve beaten up some bad teams in decisive fashion.
Even in a loss to the Cardinals, Dallas allowed James Conner to run for 98 yards on 14 carries and a total of 222 rushing yards.
The Dolphins lead in the NFL in yards per carry and have the top two running backs in Pro Football Focus’ ratings in De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert.
Baltimore Ravens (+5.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Anything more than a field goal is the bet in this one.
The top two teams in DVOA face off on Christmas Night, and this is a spot to bet the number.
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This spread is far too large, if the Ravens are what the numbers say they are.
Baltimore is averaging 5.7 yards per carry in its past three games, second-best in the NFL behind only the 49ers.
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Meanwhile, San Francisco has the 18th-best run defense according to Aaron Schatz’s DVOA, with the Ravens profiling as the better unit at eighth.
The Ravens also have the second-best pass defense unit according to DVOA.
So though the 49ers’ playmakers are elite, we can expect plenty of resistance from the Ravens.
It’s never easy backing Lamar Jackson in big games, but a run-first mentality should be the path for victory. Upset alert! The Ravens win outright.
Last week: 1-1. Ravens (W), Broncos (L).
2023 season: 12-16-2
