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An Ipsos poll commissioned exclusively for Daily Mail Australia reveals that Peter Dutton’s personal approval ratings have collapsed during the election campaign to the lowest level recorded by any opposition leader over the past 20 years.
In a devastating blow for the Liberal leader, just 27 per cent of voters approve of his performance so far on the campaign trail, with 47 per cent disapproving. This leaves him with a dissatisfaction score of minus 20.
‘Peter Dutton has recorded the lowest poll performance rating and lowest figure as preferred PM of any candidate this century,’ said Jessica Elgood, Ipsos public affairs director.
In contrast 35 per cent of those polled approve of Anthony Albanese’s performance as PM, with 39 per cent registering their disapproval.
While the PM’s satisfaction rating is also in the negative, it is only minus four compared to Dutton’s minus 20 result.
Elgood said the results show ‘there’s not a lot of love for either of our possible future prime ministers’, noting that while Albanese leads Dutton comfortably, ‘his ratings are low compared to political leaders over the last two decades’.
The poll also showed that a majority of Australians believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, citing economic management and leadership failures as the two main reasons.
Anthony Albanese (above with fiancée Jodie Haydon and son Nathan) has reason to smile after the Daily Mail Australia Ipsos poll found Peter Dutton had the lowest poll performance rating and lowest preferred PM rating of ‘any candidate this century’
Some 39 per cent of voters disapprove of Albo’s performance at PM – while 35 per cent approved, according to the Daily Mail Australia Ipsos poll
The PM’s approval is at its highest amongst younger voters aged between 18 to 34, with 41 per cent approving of his performance compared with 24 per cent who disapprove.
In contrast, only 18 per cent of 18 to 34-year-olds approve of Dutton’s performance. That figure only slightly improves to 22 per cent amongst 35 to 54-year olds.
In these age cohorts more than half – 50 per cent and 49 per cent respectively – disapprove of the Opposition Leader’s performance so far.
The age group most satisfied with Dutton’s performance are older Australians aged 55 and over. However, even then they register a net dissatisfaction rating of minus six.
As the Opposition Leader’s unpopularity sets in, unsurprisingly 47 per cent of those polled believe Labor will be returned to government for a second term compared with just 29 per cent who think the Coalition will win the election on May 3.
In a dangerous precedent for Dutton and his team, these figures are broadly in line with who voters thought would win the 2022 election between prime minister Scott Morrison and then opposition leader Anthony Albanese.
The difference in satisfaction ratings between the performances of Albanese and Dutton also means that the Labor leader enjoys a significant lead in the preferred PM stakes.
Albanese is favoured by 44 per cent of those polled compared to just 30 percent support for Dutton as the better prime ministerial candidate.
Peter Dutton’s son Harry has joined him on the campaign trail as the Daily Mail Australia Ipsos poll shows only 18 per cent of 18 to 34-year-olds approve of his performance
Some 47 per cent of voters surveyed disapproved of Peter Dutton’s performance as Opposition Leader
The preferred PM lead enjoyed by Albanese is the largest since Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings advantage over then-opposition leader Bill Shorten at the 2016 election.
Given that Shorten’s opposition won a swag of seats from the then-Coalition government, and Turnbull’s Coalition was reduced to a one seat majority, Coalition strategists will remain hopeful they can overcome the poor ratings of their leader to register a competitive showing at the election.
And the biggest issue for Aussie voters is…
The Ipsos results are less devastating for the Opposition when analysing voter responses to the issues dominating the campaign.
Cost of living tops the concerns of those polled, with 52 per cent identifying it as the number one issue during the election campaign.
‘Our polling shows that the cost of living crisis is crowding out other issues when it comes to voters concerns’, Elgood said.
The next two highest rating issues are the economy and housing, with 10 and eight percent of voters listing each as the top issue on the campaign trail.
The cost of living was overwhelmingly nominated as the top issue facing voters – with 52 per cent naming it the biggest issue at this election
Concerns about Donald Trump placed fourth in the minds of voters, with six percent of those polled naming worries about the US President as their number one concern. The Coalition is seen as narrowly better than Labor at handling Trump, 32 per cent to 29 per cent.
But the dominance of cost of living concerns highlights just how central an election issue it is for voters as they decide on which party to support.
‘Convincing voters that they have policies that can make a difference on this issue is clearly going to be critical to attracting voters and motivating those who are undecided’, Elgood pointed out.
When it comes to which party is better placed to handle cost of living issues, voters were evenly split, with each major party favoured by 38 per cent of those polled.
The Coalition has a narrow lead as better placed to handle the economy, favoured by 41 per cent of voters compared to 36 per cent support for Labor.
But Labor is seen as better placed to handle housing issues by 37 per cent of voters compared to 35 percent who favour the Coalition.
The major party campaign launches on the weekend included a series of new policies to address cost of living issues, specifically in respect to housing and tax. That’s a clear indication their internal polling reflects the results of the Daily Mail Australia Ipsos poll.
Australia is on the wrong track, poll says
A majority of those surveyed believe Australia is heading in the wrong direction. Some 51 per cent say Australia is on the wrong track compared to just 35 per cent who believe the nation is on the right track.
The biggest reason given by those polled said Australia is on the wrong track,
And the two most cited reasons why Australia is on the wrong track according to the majority are the economy (43 per cent) and political leadership (34 per cent).
‘Irrespective of age or gender, only a third of Australians think the country is on the right track’, Elgood said.
‘And it’s the economy that is most likely to worry Australians that we’re heading in the wrong direction.’
These twin issues were also the two most cited reasons for why Australia is on the right track, according to a minority 35 percent of voters who say that is the case.
The Daily Mail Australia Ipsos poll surveyed 2006 Aussies aged 18 and over using an online data collection methodology.
PVO’s view: Our political insider on what these results mean for the 2022 election…
So what can we take from these results? It is clear that Peter Dutton has personally become a drag on his party’s vote.
But there are also few others within his Coalition team who boast high profiles and strong political performances.
The Coalition has largely been a one man attack team for much of its three years in opposition. It seems that the relentless negativity Dutton has deployed to attack the PM and his government has hurt his personal standing with voters.
The fact a majority of Australians think our country is heading in the wrong direction should be a devastating response for a government still in its first term, says Political Editor Peter van Onselen
But it has also likely helped drive dissatisfaction with the job the government as a whole has done in managing the challenges of our time.
Cost of living sits at the top of people’s concerns, more specifically identifying housing and the state of the economy as issues within that envelope.
The fact a majority of Australians think our country is heading in the wrong direction should be a devastating response for a government still in its first term.
But Albanese’s better PM and satisfaction ratings are clear signs that Labor is the frontrunner and on course to secure a second term in power.
With two and a half weeks of campaigning to go, the government needs to avoid complacency – especially given those polled are overwhelmingly confident Labor will win this election.
Such certainty might mean a protest vote amongst some voters on the day, in the belief that doing so won’t affect the overall outcome.
That was what happened in 2016 when Turnbull’s Coalition government was favoured to win but only narrowly beat Shorten’s opposition.
The tight result damaged Turnbull within his own party and started his downfall as PM. Albanese will hope to avoid suffering a similar defeat.
For now, this Ipsos poll clearly identifies the PM as getting the better of Dutton across voting cohorts and in the perception stakes of who is likely to form government.
These are powerful advantages to build an election winning lead.
