Cyclone heading towards 1 million defenceless refugees

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre, Mocha strengthened Friday into the equivalent of a category 1 Atlantic hurricane and is moving north at 11 kilometres per hour.

The storm’s winds could peak at 220km/h just before making landfall on Sunday morning, the agency said.

India’s Meteorological Department said on Friday that Mocha had intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm and warned fishermen and trawlers against sailing far into the Bay over the coming days.

The agency forecast a storm surge of up to 2.5 metres was likely to inundate low-lying coastal areas in the path of the cyclone at the time of landfall.

In Bangladesh, that includes Cox’s Bazar, home to members of the stateless Rohingya community who fled persecution in nearby Myanmar during a military crackdown in 2017.

Many live in bamboo and tarpaulin shelters perched on hilly slopes that are vulnerable to strong winds, rain, and landslides.

There are also concerns for hundreds of Rohingya refugees housed on an isolated and flood-prone island facility in the Bay of Bengal, called Bhasan Char.

Ahead of Mocha’s expected landfall, aid agencies are ramping up their emergency preparedness and response with local and refugee communities.

The UN refugee agency in Bangladesh said in a tweet that “emergency preparations in the camps and on Bhasan Char are underway” in coordination with the government and local aid agencies.

“In preparation of cyclones, hundreds of Rohingya refugee volunteers have been trained on identifying risks, informing their communities, evacuating people when needed and responding after disaster strikes,” the UNHCR said in a tweet.

In neighbouring Myanmar, residents in coastal areas of Rakhine state and Ayeyarwady region have started to evacuate their homes and seek shelter ahead of the cyclone’s expected landfall, according to local independent media Myanmar Now.

The ruling Myanmar junta has issued cyclone warnings and claimed to be taking precautionary measures such as readying disaster management committees to respond to a potential disaster, according to state media Global New Light of Myanmar.

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The UN humanitarian office (UNOCHA) said in a situation report there are “grave concerns” about the storm’s impact on vulnerable and displaced communities.

“Of particular worry is the situation facing 232,100 people who are displaced across Rakhine.

“Many of the IDP camps and sites in Rakhine are located in low-lying coastal areas susceptible to storm surge,” UNOCHA said.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre said widespread flooding, landslides and high wind gusts are expected around the area of landfall and across Myanmar’s interior.

The last named tropical cyclone to make landfall in Myanmar was Maarutha in April 2017.

Though Maarutha was the equivalent of a tropical storm at landfall, with maximum winds of 92km/h, it brought heavy rains and damaged nearly 100 homes.

In October 2010, Tropical Cyclone Giri was the last storm to make landfall with hurricane-force winds.

It made landfall as a high-end Category 4 equivalent storm with maximum winds of 250km/h.

Giri caused over 150 fatalities and roughly 70 per cent of the city of Kyaukphyu, in Rakhine state, was destroyed.

According to the United Nations, roughly 15,000 homes were destroyed in the state during the storm.

The worst natural disaster to hit Myanmar was Cyclone Nargis in May 2008, killing 140,000 people, severely affecting 2.4 million and leaving 800,000 displaced, aid agencies said.