It hasn’t even been a week since the megadonor class and the elites of the Democrat Party blackmailed Joe Biden to leave the race. Almost immediately after he dropped out and endorsed Kamala Harris, the party coalesced around her and started donating again. The media narrative quickly established that the party was energized and united behind her.
Donors forced Biden out because it was clear he couldn’t win, and the party now has hope that Kamala can do what Biden could no longer do: win.
We’re in the honeymoon phase of Kamala’s candidacy, and Democrats are excited. But CNN polling expert Harry Enten may have dashed Democrats’ hopes this week when he pointed out that while Harris is, at the moment, in a stronger position than Biden was at the time he dropped out, the Democrats aren’t exactly better off with her on the top of the ticket.
For one thing, Enten noted that despite his historic unpopularity, Donald Trump has recently “recorded his highest ever favorable rating of 40%,” in the latest ABC News/Ipsos Poll. This wasn’t a “one-off” because the latest Quinnipiac University poll similarly showed him with the highest favorability ratings it’s ever recorded as well.
“The fact is Donald Trump is more popular now than he ever has been before,” Enten said. “So yes, Democrats can make this switch-a-roo, but they’re still going to have to beat Donald Trump—a Donald Trump who is stronger … than he has ever been before.”
Enten pointed out that while Harris polls better than Biden nationally, Trump still has a slim lead in the national matchup polling. This is a huge problem for Harris because, historically, Democrats fare better in the national popular vote than the Electoral College, especially against Trump.
“So at this particular point, whether you look at the favorability ratings, whether you look at the horse race polling, we see that Donald Trump is doing significantly better than he was doing four years ago at this point,” Enten explained.
“Kamala Harris is going to have to do better than this if she wants to win the popular vote, but more than that, if she wants to win the Electoral College, which she’ll likely have to outperform how she’s done nationally because the fact is, if you’ve got a tie in the national popular vote, that is probably not good enough if you are Kamala Harris, and you want to win the election against Donald Trump,” he continued.
Beating Trump won’t be easy. His favorable rating is higher now than it has ever been (per two polls taken over the weekend).
Harris may poll better than Biden did against Trump, but Trump is running 5 points ahead nationally against her than he finished against Biden in 2020. pic.twitter.com/cnOtUKtWXe
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 23, 2024
Harris has other problems as well, namely her appeal with young voters. While she still has a nine-point advantage over Trump with voters under the age of 35, that pales in comparison to Biden’s 21-point advantage with young voters in 2020.
Brat Summer or not, I looked into whether Harris has unique appeal to young voters. She doesn’t. She’s doing much worse against Trump than Biden did in 2020.
Moreover, young Democrats are NOT disproportionately more motivated to vote than other Democrats because of Biden’s exit pic.twitter.com/WpH5Sf4vPE
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 24, 2024
So, yes, the race has tightened but not enough for Kamala Harris to pull off a victory. There’s still plenty of time though.
