Does the Protection Racket Media need a “reality check”? So said Harry Enten, CNN’s estimable polling analyst, yesterday after looking at the most recent polling. The media still covers Donald Trump by assuming his unpopularity, even after winning both the Electoral College and the national popular vote in November.
Not only is Trump at his most popular these days, Enten says, Americans feel better about the country’s direction than they have in years. And Democrats hoping to score a rebuke against Trump in the 2026 midterms might need a reality check of their own:
We need a “reality check”… Right track % in the U.S. is “through the roof!” Highest since 04 per NBC & 2nd highest since 09 per Marist.
Trump is more popular now in his net favorable than any time in term 1 or when he won in 2024.
Generic ballot looks like when GOP wins. pic.twitter.com/iDh0XEt1qK
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) March 25, 2025
The swing in polling on the right/wrong direction question has been sustained now for at least several weeks, and now the congressional ballot looks just as good for the GOP:
ENTEN: The bottom line is, the percentage of Americans who say we’re on the right track is through the roof. And if you were to compare it to when presidents have historically been re-elected, of course, Trump is not constitutionally eligible to run for re-election, but I think it sort of puts it in perspective, 42 percent of the country says the country is on the right track when the incumbent party is re-elected. And also keep in mind, back when Kamala Harris lost and the Democrats were turned out of power, only about 27 to 28 percent of the country said the country was on the right track. The bottom line is, right now, a much higher percentage of the country says we’re on the right track.
And finally, Sara Sidner, I want to put it all in the congressional generic ballot.
SIDNER: What about Congress?
ENTEN: What about Congress? Because those are the folks who are up in 2026. And take a look here. The Dems versus the Republicans on the generic congressional ballot. Back in November of 2020, when Democrats won, it was plus five Democrats. Tied in November of 2022. Plus one in November of 2024, when Republicans maintain control. And then you look at March of 2025, this number looks a lot more like 2022 or 2024, when Republicans won control of Congress.
The bottom line is, yes, Donald Trump’s approval rating is lower than compared to a lot of his predecessors, but it’s higher when compared to himself. A lot of folks say the country’s on the right track, and the generic congressional ballot looks a heck of a lot more like when Republicans win than when Democrats win.
I included this in last night’s Final Word, but it requires a closer look. Thanks to ABC’s decision to close FiveThirtyEight, we now only have one aggregator for the direction polling, but RealClearPolling does a great job with it. (The difference is that FiveThiryEight weighted for pollster ratings, while RCP sticks to simple aggregation.) At RCP, the Direction of Country aggregation averages began narrowing in mid-January as Trump accelerated his transition to office, and began sharply narrowing after his inauguration. The current value of -9 is the lowest in almost four years, and a far cry from the -36.5 at the time of the election.
What about the generic ballot? That looks a little murkier, mainly because pollsters only just started asking the question since the inauguration. RCP only has four polls in the aggregate, and those average out to a Democrat lead — but only barely, 45.3/44.5. Generally, anything less than a D+5 or so looks troublesome for Democrats. However, the R+1 in November didn’t help Republicans expand their majority in House races, even with Trump winning handily at the top of the ticket.
To Enten’s point, the generic ballot would look a lot better for Democrats if Trump was as unpopular as they or the media assume Trump is. He may not generate a lot of love because of his personality type, but voters didn’t elect Trump to be lovable. They elected him to take action against the Bureaustate and expose corruption and fraud. And so far, they like what they see about the direction Trump has taken the country, even if they’re still diffident about Trump himself.
Enten’s reality check probably won’t have any impact on Democrats and the media. They will likely assume that they can mold public opinion with daily freak-outs over Trump. That backfired on them in November 2024; we’ll see if November 2026 provides another “reality check,” and whether they ignore that, too.
