The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has formally declared an El Niño event, increasing the likelihood of a hot and dry summer and elevating the bushfire risk.
The declaration comes two months after the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organisation had previously declared El Niño’s arrival, predicting hot weather and tumbling temperature records.
“This summer will be hotter than average and certainly hotter than the last three years,” Dr Karl Braganza from the BoM said.
The El Niño declaration has also been made by the US Climate Prediction Centre and the Japan Meteorological Agency.
Climate model outlooks suggest the El Niño period is likely to continue until at least the end of the southern hemisphere summer at the end of February.
The formal outlook will remain at El Niño level until the event wanes or signs of a possible La Niña appear.
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Conditions for an El Niño event have met the required three of four criteria, the bureau said.
“Central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures continue to exceed El Niño thresholds.
“Models indicate further warming of the central to eastern Pacific is likely.
“Overall, there are signs that the atmosphere is responding to the pattern of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and coupling of the ocean and atmosphere has started to occur.
“This coupling is a characteristic of an El Niño event and is what strengthens and sustains an event for an extended period.”
