The results are in, and Donald Trump has won Wisconsin, bringing his Electoral College vote count to 280.
Trump was leading by more than three points in the RealClearPolitics average when Joe Biden dropped out, and the polls quickly tightened once Kamala was anointed the Democratic Party presidential nominee. Polls over the past month generally showed a tie, or a one- to two-point race, with one outlier suggesting Kamala had a six-point lead.
Kamala came into Election Day with a tiny lead in RealClearPolitics (RCP) average of just +0.4 points over Trump (48.6% to 48.2%). The most recent polls were mixed, with Kamala leading in several polls, including InsiderAdvantage (+1), NY Times/Siena (+2), Marist (+2), Morning Consult (+6), and Quinnipiac (+1). Trump, however, had a slight edge in a few polls, such as AtlasIntel (+1), Trafalgar Group (+1), Rasmussen Reports (+3), and TIPP (+1). Of course, there were also several polls showing a tie between the two candidates, including The Hill/Emerson, Echelon Insights, and USA Today/Suffolk.
Kamala’s lead in the RCP average was much smaller than either Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton had at the same point in the race. Biden came into Election Day with a 6.7-point lead in the RCP average in Wisconsin, and only won it by 0.7 points. Hillary Clinton similarly had a 6.5-point lead back in 2016, and narrowly lost the state to Trump by 0.7 points.
It was widely believed by many right-leaning pundits and polling experts that Wisconsin in particular has been notoriously difficult for pollsters to poll, and that there would be similar pro-Democrat bias in 2024’s polling.
Last month, there were signs that Kamala was hurting Democrats down ballot. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) saw her lead shrink in both public and internal polls, prompting Republicans to aggressively pour money into the state to pull off an upset.
