Oh, you again.
For the fourth time since 2015, the Yankees and Astros are facing each other in the playoffs. For the third time since 2017, it is in the ALCS and as in the previous two, Houston has home-field advantage. The Astros advanced both previous times.
By reaching their sixth straight ALCS, the Astros have shown this is not a foundation built on banged garbage cans and buzzers. Houston has moved on from one-time cornerstones such as Carlos Correa, Dallas Keuchel and George Springer, plus GM Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch, and has just kept winning.
The Yankees and Astros played a best-of-seven this season, with Houston winning five games to two. The margin of victory in the Houston wins was by one run twice, by two runs twice and by three runs once. Amazingly, the Yankees never led at any point in the 64 innings of the series — until the final swing in their two victories, when Aaron Judge delivered walk-off hits. Their two wins were by one run and three runs.
The Yankees insist that the Astros are not in their heads. They believe they can beat them. There is only one way to truly prove that. With the help of three scouts and one executive, we took a deep dive into how that might be possible by exploring the strengths and the very few weaknesses of the AL West champs:
They start great
The first thought that comes to mind about the Astros usually revolves around the lineup or Justin Verlander. But the rotation is the strength of this team, and it is not just Verlander.
“The biggest thing that stands out to me is the starting pitching — it’s great,” Scout 1 said. “You combine depth with the different roles all of them can play, it’s really something.”
Scout 2: “If you think their bullpen is not a powerhouse, it is protected because the starters go long and then the guys who are the extra starters go into the bullpen.”
No team should be more acquainted with the strength of the Astros starters than the Yankees. In the seven games against each other this year, Houston starters held the Yankees to 15 hits in 42 ¹/₃ innings. Four of those starts were by Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier, one of whom will be in the pen in this ALCS, behind Verlander, Framber Valdez and Lance McCullers Jr. By Baseball Reference game score, Javier had the best start of the season against the Yankees. His seven-inning, 13-strikeout master class opened Houston’s June 25 no-hitter.
Scout 2: “Down the stretch, Javier was their best starter without a doubt. His fastball is unhittable. He has a unique look from a lower slot, it really does give the impression of a rising fastball. He just pounds you at the top of the zone. Then he has a slider for a strike whenever he needs it.”
This year against Houston starters, Aaron Judge was 1-for-18, Josh Donaldson and Anthony Rizzo 2-for-14, and Aaron Hicks and Jose Trevino both hitless in 10 at-bats.
Because Division Series Game 5 was moved to Tuesday after a rainout, the Yankees lost the off-day between that series and the ALCS. Plus, the traditional travel day between Games 5-6 is gone. Thus, if the ALCS goes the distance, the Yankees would have seven games in eight days at a time when manager Aaron Boone has shown faith in three starters and four relievers — if Ron Marinaccio and Frankie Montas return, perhaps that would expand.
The Astros, if you add Hunter Brown and Jose Urquidy (who one-hit the Yankees for seven innings on June 26), have seven starters to deploy in any way to counter the volume of games before even discussing the pen.
“Their rotation ERA doesn’t start with a 2 [2.95] by accident,” Scout 1 said. “They have seven above-average major league starters right now. I’ve never seen it in a playoff series.”
Walks/homers
Avert your eyes, Yankees fans. But the way for them to beat that pitching is with the caveman style that most of the faithful despise — draw a walk, hit a homer.
That might be different if Andrew Benintendi and DJ LeMahieu were fully healthy and could provide their professional at-bats interspersed into the lineup. But the current condition of the Yankees’ positional group, especially against this Astros staff, is going to necessitate patience and power — the patience perhaps helping to get starters out of an outing, say, an inning earlier.
“If you don’t hit it out of the park against them, it’s hard to beat them,” Scout 3 said. “They throw strikes and don’t allow a lot of hits. You better have power and put runs on the board quickly.”
The Yankees were competitive with the Astros this year in those seven games because of walks and homers. Against the starters, they actually had more walks (16) than hits (15), and six of the hits were homers, including by Donaldson and Rizzo. Giancarlo Stanton was 3-for-14 against the Astros rotation — two of the hits were homers.
“If the version of Judge shows up who we saw [the first four games] against the [Guardians], the Yankees can’t win,” the executive said. “There is large stress on Judge in this series to be the Judge from the regular season. Judge, Rizzo and Stanton are going to have to hit homers in this series.”
The Yankees’ two victories versus Houston this season were completed by a two-out, bottom-of-the-ninth RBI single by Judge off Ryne Stanek and a two-out, three-run homer in the bottom of the 10th inning by Judge off Seth Martinez. Note both walk-offs came against relievers.
“Any time you can disrupt the Astros formula, that’s good,” the executive said. “You can’t let them run the playbook of their starter getting 18-21 outs. You have to be selective. The Yankees need to have long at-bats.”
And long balls.
Top-heavy
Scout 3: “Their lineup is not as deep as it used to be. But the top five hitters are extremely good.”
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The departures of Correa and Springer, a season-ending injury to Michael Brantley and the decline of Yuri Gurriel has created a lineup not as deep as in the recent past. After Kyle Tucker in the fifth spot, the order declines — though Gurriel was 6-for-15 without a strikeout in the Astros’ three-game Division Series sweep of the Mariners.
The Astros present a similar problem to the Guardians in that they put the ball in play — Cleveland had the majors’ lowest strikeout percentage (18.2) and Houston was next (19.5). But the Astros hit 214 homers and the Guardians hit 127. Cleveland is trying to be pesky. Foul balls off. Get runners on. Play a small-ball game.
The Astros were tied with the Nationals for seeing the second-fewest pitches per plate appearance. All three scouts offered the opinion that Houston is trying to hunt a fastball early in the count — including the first pitch — and ambush it for power; no one more so than leadoff man Jose Altuve.
“But Altuve is such a smart hitter,” Scout 3 said. “Out of the leadoff spot, he will jump a fastball and try to hit it over the fence. But he is every bit capable of dropping a bunt for a hit.”
Altuve, though, was out of sorts on both sides of the ball in the Division Series, going 0-for-16 at the plate because, the executive said, “He was in premeditated swing mode. It felt like he was making a decision before the pitch whether to take or swing.”
Will the Yankees face that Altuve, or the one that has fed on the animus at Yankee Stadium, where the fans see him as the lingering face of the 2017 sign-stealing scandal and the guy who ended the 2019 ALCS with a walk-off homer against Aroldis Chapman that ignited conspiracy theories that he was wearing a buzzer to alert him what pitch was coming? For example, in 19 plate appearances at Yankee Stadium this season, Altuve had two doubles, two homers, four walks, five total hits and two steals. The boos did not deflate him. They elevated him.
The top five of the Astros lineup is so dangerous, especially when Altuve is right, that dealing with the bottom four is vital. That is generally going to be Gurriel, then the DH (Trey Mancini or Aledmys Diaz), the center fielder (Chas McCormick or Jake Meyers) and catcher Martin Maldonado. Astros manager Dusty Baker will use “some action plays” with the bottom of the lineup, Scout 1 noted, as a way to stimulate offense.
The scouts were in agreement that limiting the bottom four so that the top doesn’t bat as often and/or with a runner in scoring position is instrumental. But Scout 3 went further and said the key is Jeremy Peña hitting second and Alex Bregman at cleanup. Peña had a terrific rookie season (especially on defense and with power) highlighted by his 18th-inning homer to eliminate Seattle. But he had only a .289 on-base percentage this year.
Bregman rallied from a bland first half to return to being a tough, clutch hitter. But he has a different impact at home (16 homers/.972 OPS), where he capitalizes on the proximity in left field of the Crawford Boxes, than on the road (seven homers/.673 OPS). Just seven of his 23 homers would have been out in every stadium (Baseball Savant).
And why did Scout 3 say it was so integral to deal well with the second and fourth hitters …
Because Yordan Alvarez hits third
Scout 3 said: “When the Astros won the World Series in 2017, their lineup was better than it is now. But even then, they didn’t have the best hitter in baseball in the middle. They do now.”
Obviously, with Judge in the same series, that is quite a statement, but it involves Alvarez’s damage quotient without big strikeout numbers. Scout 2: “Alvarez knows how to get to his pitch to hit. He is the definition of aggressively selective.” Alvarez had a 13.9 percent walk rate (seventh in the majors), yet struck out just 18.9 percent of the time (MLB average is 22.4).
There were 79 lefty hitters with at least 70 plate appearances versus southpaws. Alvarez’s .998 OPS was the best. Plus, he was 1.030 vs. righties. He had a 1.014 OPS at home and it was better on the road at 1.024 — only Judge at 1.141 (minimum 140 plate appearances) was better.
Scout 3: “Alvarez does such a good job slowing the game down in the box while swinging Thor’s hammer. He just doesn’t miss-hit balls. Even the foul balls are hard. The mixture of damage and zone discipline and ability to cover the entire plate, it’s something. There’s not really one spot or one thing you can do to get him. It used to be that you could bust him inside with velocity. It’s still true. But miss by an inch and it is a homer.”
Scout 1: “Yordan is the engine, don’t let him beat you. He is the guy who makes everything work. He is a special generational hitter. The plate coverage is great. The hitting instincts are off the chart. You will have a theory on how to deal with him. But the best theory is don’t let him beat you. Because once you get by Bregman and Tucker, there are outs at the bottom of the lineup.”
The head game
The Astros know they can beat the Yankees. Do the Yankees know they can beat the Astros?
Houston is confident and relentless and anything less against it will lead to elimination. This is how the Astros advanced in the Division Series in sweeping Seattle: Rallied from 7-3 down over the final two innings of Game 1 to win on Alvarez’s walk-off, three-run homer. Rallied to beat Mariners ace Luis Castillo. Held Seattle scoreless for 18 innings to win 1-0 before a throaty, hostile road crowd. “What should scare everyone is that they still had good pitchers holstered in the 18th inning,” Scout 3 said.
The executive said: “You have to pack a lunch for 27 outs. They are never out of the game. They are never going to relent for 27 outs. They have learned how to win. They have learned how to not panic. You have to play a complete game. The accelerator can never be let up on. You can never let up and be on cruise control.”
Even their weaknesses are not exactly weaknesses. Their manager, Baker — much like Buck Showalter — bemoaned the lack of a qualified lefty reliever (Houston had none on its ALDS roster). But 80 relievers faced at least 100 lefty hitters this year and Houston righty Rafael Montero’s .157 batting average against was second best. Closer Ryan Pressly was at .178; Bryan Abreu at .189; Hector Neris at .205. Abreu, with his ability to land a back-foot slider, has faced 207 lefty hitters in his career, including 120 this year. None has ever homered. Those will be the relievers Rizzo, and also Matt Carpenter if he DHs, will face, with Boone using the small left field in front of the Crawford Boxes to start Stanton in left.
The pen will be all righty, but it is diversified with different looks and Houston game plans excellently to line up their relievers’ strengths to neutralize opponent strengths.
Yes, the Yankees have to be about walks and homers. But they also have to be alert on defense. Their fundamentals — think pitchers backing up bases — were not great against Cleveland. The Yanks, after a crisp, pay-attention-to-detail first half, got more lax as the season progressed with items like secondary leads. But the Astros’ staff (notably Verlander and the key relievers) can be run on. Alvarez is a better defender than his bulky reputation. Still, he is not great starting and stopping and moving laterally, so there could be bases added, especially in the more spacious left field at Yankee Stadium. Altuve can get yippy with his throws at second.
“They are more vulnerable than people think,” the executive said. “It is important to punch them first and get them out of their comfort zone. But even behind, there is no quit. You have to be prepared for a full heavyweight fight of 27 outs.”
