Borrowers sweat potential 13th interest rate hike as eyes turn to RBA

Economists are split on whether the central bank will choose to hike rates for a 13th time in 15 months or whether they will pause after seeing faster-than-expected falls in inflation.

The RBA’s decision and how it will affect borrowers will be covered here at 2.30pm AEST.

Currently, Australia’s cash rate target is 4.1 per cent, the highest since early 2012.

Canstar’s editor-at-large and Today money expert Effie Zahos said there are reasons why the RBA may choose to lift rates once again.

“The ASX RBA Rate Tracker expects the Reserve Bank to leave the cash rate unchanged in July but if you had to draw up a ‘for and against’ list, there would be more reasons to increase the cash rate than to hit pause,” Zahos said.

“Property prices continue to rise, underlying measures of inflation are still above 6 per cent, the most recent retail sales figures came in stronger than expected and job vacancies are still too high.

“Either way, it will be a close call.”

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Josh Gilbert, market analyst at eToro, said he is expecting a hike.

“Once again, it’s another hotly contested decision for the RBA, with economists split over the decision. According to Bloomberg’s Survey of Economists, 19 call for a pause, while 13 expect another hike,” Gilbert said.

“There are clear signs that inflation is moving in the right direction, with a significant decline last month.

“However, many other data points – such as retail sales and unemployment – suggest that the RBA still has work to do.

“Given Philip Lowe’s aggressive take on inflation so far in 2023, I’d be surprised to see anything but a hike today, but a pause is clearly on the table.”