The housing market in Australia’s major cities is heading for a downturn as price growth slows, new numbers show.
CoreLogic’s National Home Value Index rose by just 0.1 per cent in November, the weakest national result since January 2023.
It was the 22nd consecutive month of growth, but it could signal the end of rising prices.
“The downturn is gathering momentum in Melbourne and Sydney,” CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless said.
“While the mid-sized capitals, which have dominated the growth cycle of late, are also losing steam.”
Melbourne, where housing values have fallen during 10 of the past 12 months, recorded a 0.4 per cent fall in November, taking values 2.3 per cent lower over the past year.
For Sydney, September likely marked the peak of the cycle, with values falling consecutively in October (down 0.1 per cent) and by a larger0.2 per cent in November.
On a rolling quarterly basis, four of the eight capitals recorded a fall in values, led by Melbourne (down 0.1 per cent) and joined by Darwin (down 0.7 per cent), Sydney (down 0.5 per cent) and Canberra (down 0.3 per cent).
“The mid-sized capitals and most of the regional ‘rest of state’ markets continue to provide some support for growth in the national index, but it is clear momentum is also leaving these markets,” Lawless said.
Housing values in Perth continue to rise, with a 1.1 per cent gain in November and three per cent in the past quarter.
However, that’s still the lowest quarterly growth since April 2023.
Similarly, Brisbane’s quarterly rate of growth has eased back to 1.8 per cent, the slowest pace of gains since March 2023, while Adelaide’s 2.8 per cent rise in values in the past three months was the smallest outcome since June 2023.
Outside of the capitals, regional housing trends have been a little stronger, with the combined regional index rising 1.1 per cent over the past three months compared with a 0.3 per cent lift across the combined capitals.
More homes are also entering the market, with listings in capital cities up 16 per cent since August.
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Sydney and Melbourne listings are now tracking 10.4 per cent and 9.1 per cent above their previous five-year average respectively, to be at their highest level for this time of the year since 2018.
However, buyer interest is slowing. CoreLogic estimated capital city home sales in the past three months were down 4.6 per cent compared to a year ago, and two per cent below the five-year average.
Sydney led the way on that trend, with quarterly sales down more than 15 per cent on both last year and the five-year average.
