Are you excited? Nervous? Just can’t wait for it to be over? I hear ya. Tomorrow is the big day, and we all want to know what’s going to happen. Of course, no one can predict with 100% certainty, but some pollsters get more credibility than others when they have a record of accuracy. The AtlasIntel poll was the most accurate pollster of 2020, and so when they release a poll, it carries a lot of weight.
And on Monday evening, they dropped their final poll of the election, which includes both national and battleground state polling.
First, Trump is ahead nationally, 49.2% to Kamala Harris’ 48.1%
ATLAS POLL – U.S. ELECTIONS
In the final Atlas poll before the election, the gap between Trump and Harris has narrowed to just 1.1 percentage point.
🔴 Trump: 49.2%
🔵 Harris: 48.1%
⚪ Others/Undecided: 2.7% pic.twitter.com/YUcBRJiq0l— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 5, 2024
In their head-to-head scenario, Trump also leads.
HEAD TO HEAD SCENARIO
The time series illustrates the stability of the race, with a slight improvement for Harris in the campaign’s final stretch.
🔴 Trump: 50%
🔵 Harris: 48.8% pic.twitter.com/chGOKWZU1q— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 5, 2024
Like in their previous poll of the battleground states, their final poll has Trump ahead in all seven swing states.
Trump’s largest lead is in Arizona, where he is ahead by 5.1 points, followed by Nevada (a 3.1-point advantage), North Carolina (a 2.1-point lead), Georgia (1.6-point margin), and Michigan, where he leads by 1.5 points. Trump also holds a narrow lead in Pennsylvania, where he is up by 1 point, and in Wisconsin, where he is ahead by 0.9 points.
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However, AtlasIntel gave us something new. They’ve added Minnesota and Virginia. According to their polling, Kamala leads Trump by 5.4 points in Virginia and by 2.0 points in Minnesota.
ATLAS POLLS – SWING STATES
Among the battleground states, Trump leads in Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina, while narrowing the 2020 margins in Virginia and Minnesota. However, Georgia and Pennsylvania, two of the most valuable states in the Electoral College, are close. pic.twitter.com/MNZUcLXNSA
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 5, 2024
This poll, like their last one, translates into a Trump Electoral College victory of 312-226.
The FINAL poll from @atlas_intel, the most accurate pollster of 2020.
🟥Arizona: Trump +5.1
🟥Nevada: Trump +3.1
🟥North Carolina: Trump +2.1
🟥Georgia: Trump +1.6
🟥Michigan: Trump +1.5
🟥Pennsylvania: Trump +1.0
🟥Wisconsin: Trump +0.9
🟦Minnesota: Harris +2.0… pic.twitter.com/PkIQJkTj18— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) November 5, 2024
Again, I wouldn’t advise you to take any one poll as gospel. But, since AtlasIntel was so accurate in 2020, I think it’s worth paying attention to their polling.
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