If Saturday’s election ends up being closer than most people are expecting, and Labor’s primary vote falls to an historic low of just 28 per cent – as our final Ipsos poll is predicting today – what happens next?
In the final of our three published polls during this campaign voters were asked who in Labor’s ranks would they prefer to see as the next PM if Anthony Albanese stepped down as leader.
The question comes in the context of a potential hung parliament in which Labor forms minority government, and because at 62, the PM is nearing retirement age.
He has even recently purchased a $4.3million cliff-side mansion on the NSW Central Coast which is earmarked for his post-parliamentary retirement years with fiancée Jodie Haydon.
While Albo promised to serve a full term if re-elected in the lead up to election day, he’s made promises before and not kept them such as pledges not to change the stage three tax cuts or adjust how superannuation is taxed.
It also might not be Albo’s decision to make, if colleagues aren’t satisfied with his performance and look to move him on themselves before he’s ready to.
So who are the potential sharks circling and what to voters REALLY think of them as alternative prime ministerial contenders?
Call me PM? Penny Wong topped voters’ list of potential Labor candidates for Prime Minister, if Anthony Albanese were to step down (together, above)
Treasurer Jim Chalmers came in second place, selected by 11 per cent of voters polled by the Daily Mail Australia-Ipsos survey
The top two responses to the Ipsos question of who should take over were ‘I don’t know’ (27 per cent), and ‘none of the above’ (22 per cent), nearly half of all respondents (49 per cent).
That’s not exactly a glowing endorsement for the ALP’s alternative PM options, or how recognised they might be by the voting public. Perhaps that makes the PM safer ahead of negotiating a likely hung parliament as the leader of a minority government.
Among the alternatives named, Senate Leader Penny Wong was the highest rating next PM in line, with 17 per cent support. Perhaps enough locked in Labor supporters didn’t mind her unhelpful late campaign intervention spruiking an ‘inevitable’ Indigenous Voice to Parliament.
Wong is one of Albo’s closest parliamentary allies. Being in the wrong chamber makes it hard to see her taking over, especially given she had plans to retire back in 2019, only staying on at Albo’s specific request when he took over as opposition leader after Bill Shorten’s election defeat.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has been addicted to profile pieces since first going public about his addiction to drinking that he has kicked, after ‘cutting a bit loose socially’ around Parliament.
He came in second with 11 per cent support. That makes him the highest rating MP, given that Wong resides in the Senate and would need to shift chambers to become PM.
Albo’s number one frenemy Tanya Plibersek came in third on 8 per cent. It is not hard to imagine that if Albo does step aside willingly he’ll do all that he can to ensure his replacement is anyone other than Plibersek.
It will be just as interesting to see what Albo does with Plibersek if Labor do win a second term in power as expected. She was demoted from education to environment after the 2022 election with a further reshuffle down the order predicted by many this time around.
Best of frenemies: Tanya Plibersek is no favourite of Anthony Albanese’s, and is the preferred choice of 8 per cent of voters
Deputy PM Richard Marles and Energy Minister Chris Bowen were the choice of six and four per cent of voters respectively
Industrial relations minister Tony Burke was the choice of just two per cent of voters – despite his name being bandied about by Labor powerbrokers as a potential PM one day. Charismatic Labor campaign spokesman Jason Clare was another also-ran, also chosen by two per cent
Deputy PM and Defence Minister Richard Marles came in next with just six per cent support. The senior Victorian right wing powerbroker has long considered himself an outside chance of one day taking over the Labor leadership.
The Ipsos poll confirms, yes, in the eyes of voters, he certainly is an outsider.
The remaining three names offered as options in the Ipsos poll included climate change minister Chris Bowen on four per cent, followed by campaign spokesman and education minister Jason Clare, and manager of government business and IR minister Tony Burke each of whom got two per cent support.
While this triumvirate of also rans might not have made names for themselves as alternative PM’s amongst the public, all are senior members of the NSW Labor factional right which has often played a lead hand in selecting Labor leaders federally.
While the likes of Burke and Bowen continue to harbour leadership aspirations, it may well be that jittery marginal seat MPs will be reluctant to support them for the top job unless a second Labor term in office sees them lift their standing in the community.
Although Daily Mail Australia does hear that if Chalmers becomes impatient and starts to push Albo to move on and move out, the PM won’t take kindly to be hurried up.
While he would never look to throw his support behind Plibersek to block Chalmers’ move – assuming Albo’s leadership looks to be over at that point – it is possible he backs Burke to beat Chalmers in what would become a NSW verses Queensland Labor right wing factional showdown.
