The Aaron Judge-less Yankees are broken.
The Yankees are 7-9 since Judge was injured against the Dodgers on June 3.
The Yanks are 30-19 with Judge in the lineup this season and 13-16 without him.
It’s unusual for one player to be so crucial to a team in baseball, which is a less star-driven league than the NBA or NFL.
But Judge is no average player.
He pairs above-average plate discipline with generational power and excellent outfield defense.
Judge is too valuable in all areas of the game.
He’s also now sidelined for an extended period, given he tore a ligament in his toe.
That’s a problem for the Yankees.
But it also might open up betting value on the Yankees, at least in the short-term, game-to-game markets.
2023 New York Yankees odds
To win the World Series: +1400
AL League Winners: +800
AL East Division: +1100
In short, I’ll often be betting on Yankee Unders with Judge sidelined.
One of the big reasons the Yankees are struggling is that the roster is razor-thin.
The Yankees don’t have many big bats behind Judge.
Among regular New York players outside of Judge, only Anthony Rizzo, Harrison Bader, and Gleyber Torres have an above-average OPS.
The Anthony Volpe-DJ LeMahieu-Oswaldo Cabrera trio is hitting a combined .209.
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Additionally, Giancarlo Stanton is struggling mightily, meaning the Yankees are essentially without their two best sluggers.
These Yankees cannot hit without their MVP bat in the middle of the order.
The Yankees haven’t fallen off the wagon yet, but that’s despite their lineup.
Instead, the Yankees are surviving thanks to their elite pitching.
The Yankees boast a solid rotation.
Cy Young candidate Gerrit Cole headlines the rotation, but I’m relatively high on Clarke Schmidt, Domingo German and Nestor Cortes.
The Yankees don’t have the best rotation in baseball, but they definitely have the best bullpen in baseball.
Clay Holmes and Wandy Peralta are still the top two bullpen arms in the Bronx, but Michael King, Ian Hamilton and Tommy Kahnle are all producing at an elite level, creating a deep and dangerous unit.
The Yankees lead MLB in reliever ERA (2.85) and WHIP (1.17) while ranking top-three in homers allowed (24 and FanGraphs WAR (3.4).
It’s really hard to score on the Yankees in high-leverage situations.
Combine that with the Yankees’ dangerously thin lineup and rock-solid bullpen, and you can see how these Judge-less Yankee games are so low scoring.
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The betting markets have played out that way.
If you had bet $100 on each Yankees “team total under” since Judge went down, you’d be up over $700, generating a 42% ROI.
I’m looking to capitalize on this trend for the foreseeable future with Judge sidelined.
While the markets are considering Judge’s injury when setting lines, it’s clear to me that they haven’t adjusted their totals enough to compensate for New York’s regressed lineup and improved pitching staff.
So, wager accordingly.
