Two weeks have passed in the 2024 college football season, and we’re starting to see how teams are shaping up this fall.
We’re also seeing players rise and fall in the awards betting markets.
Take the Heisman Trophy, for example. Texas QB Quinn Ewers entered the season with the third-best odds at +900 but after he helped the Longhorns dismantle Michigan at The Big House on Saturday, he is now the betting favorite at +500.
Let’s take a look at the Heisman race heading into Week 3, with a focus on the evolving betting markets.
2024 Heisman Trophy odds
| Player | Odds | Player | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Ewers (Texas) | +500 | Dillon Gabriel (Oregon) | +1200 |
| Cameron Ward (Miami) | +750 | Nico Iamaleava (Tennessee) | +1200 |
| Carson Beck (Georgia) | +850 | Miller Moss (USC) | +1800 |
| Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss) | +950 | Will Howard (Ohio State) | +2000 |
| Jalen Milroe (Alabama) | +1000 | Ashton Jeanty (Boise State) | +2800 |
2024 Heisman Trophy update, predictions
It’s easy to see why Ewers has climbed to the top of the odds board after the clinic he put forward on Saturday. He finished with 246 passing yards and three touchdowns and was masterful against the Wolverines’ blitz, finishing with 8.5 yards per attempt, according to PFF.
Ewers will have a massive showdown with Georgia on Oct. 19 in perhaps the most crucial game of the regular season for him, Texas and college football. If he beats Carson Beck and puts up impressive numbers, he could almost sew up the award before Halloween.
Miami quarterback Cameron Ward has exploded into second place, but I’d advise against placing any money on him at +750 odds. I’m not sure we’ve learned that much about this Miami team yet after facing a lifeless Florida squad and Florida A&M from the FCS.
I also wonder if Ward will get enough of the spotlight against a soft ACC schedule compared to the other quarterbacks on this list in more challenging conferences. The Canes are only slated to play one ranked team for the rest of the season, and Louisville is only ranked 19th.
Beck has seven touchdowns and no interceptions through two weeks, but his odds to win the award haven’t changed much. He was priced around +750 before the season and is available at +850 now.
He has only been pressured on 14.1% of his dropbacks so far, per PFF, and he’s hardly had to make any difficult throws.
Georgia’s schedule will ratchet up in difficulty with road games against Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss, as well as a home game against Tennessee. As impressive as he looks, I’d be cautious about placing any money on Beck with that slate of games.
Perhaps the most intriguing name on the list is Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel. The favorite to win the Heisman for most of the summer at +550 before the season began, Gabriel has had a choppy start with just four touchdowns through two games. His odds have ballooned to +1200.
The Ducks overall have had an uneven start to the year, narrowly defeating Idaho and Boise State. However, their home game against Ohio State on Oct. 12 looms large, and if Gabriel can deliver in a Ducks win, it would be a significant Heisman moment.
Betting on College Football?
I trust Dan Lanning and his staff to get the offensive line fixed, and the Ducks have elite pass-catching talent headlined by Evan Stewart, Traeshon Holden and Tez Johnson.
Oregon is still fifth in national title odds, and reports of the team’s demise are overblown as the Ducks are projected double-digit favorites in eight of their 10 remaining games.
I’ll take the +1200 value on Gabriel and expect the offense to begin firing on all cylinders soon.
