If joy is the theme of some campaigns this election season, Flagler County Elections Supervisor Kaiti Lenhart has had joy mastered since she took over that office almost a decade ago.
But until today, she’d never said anything like this about an election: “This election, this primary, has been the smoothest primary in my tenure, it really has,” Lenhart said as she stood just outside the 150-foot boundary for electioneering at the Flagler County Public Library in Palm Coast this afternoon, one of the four early voting sites in the county. “Everybody has been getting along really well. I mean, we’ve had some reports of some materials being distributed that didn’t have a disclaimer, and certain things, the run of the mill things.”
Just last week the County Commission was again considering (and tabling until after the election) a proposed ordinance that was designed as if specifically to turn down the temperature at election sites, if with somewhat heavy-handed means that the commissioners were uncomfortable imposing. But even if it had been enacted, the ordinance would have been unnecessary. Win or lose, this year’s candidates appear to have earned good-behavior badges.
“I’m really proud of our candidates,” Lenhart said–again, not the sort of words she’s used in the past. “Everybody has been respectful of each other’s space. And it’s just been a really, really good early voting experience, I think for the voters and the candidates.”
But turnout is tracking somewhat lower than what it was in the last general election in 2020, even though in-person early voting turnout may end up matching the figure from 2020. That year, 5,541 people braved Covid to turn out in person during the 13 days of early voting at three sites in Flagler County, or a fifth of all ballots cast. So far in this election, with early voting limited to eight days at four sites but no communicable diseases to worry about (at least not on 2020’s scale), 4,800 voters have turned out, with two days left. The total will almost certainly match or slightly exceed that of 2020, keeping in mind that the electorate has grown by 5,163 voters since then.
In 2020, mail-in ballots totaled 16,500, which was 61 percent of the total. The number of mail-in ballots is much lower this year, with 9,823 cast so far, and only ballots previously requested eligible to be turned in as mail-in over the next five days. The requesting window has closed.
There’s still election day turnout on Tuesday, which may boost numbers. But election day voting has been tepid for several cycles. Overall turnout as of today was 15.5 percent. Turnout in 2020 was 30.5 percent. To match that figure, at least 28,660 voters must cast a ballot by the end of Election Day. So far, 14,592 have voted. That means 14,068 more must vote just to match the 2020 turnout rate. Short of an unusual surge on Election day itself, that seems unlikely In the 2016 primary, more people voted early than on election day.
As of 3 this afternoon, 326 people had voted at the public library site off Palm Coast Parkway, 56 had voted at the United Methodist Church in Flagler Beach, 240 at the Palm Coast Community Center and 180 at the Supervisor of Elections’ office at the Government Services Building in Bunnell. Overall 800 ballots were recorded across all four early voting sites in the county, an average of 33 voters per hour per site, which is still better than any single early voting day during the 2020 cycle, when the highest daily total was 694. But again, the mail-in balloting is a different story.
Local dynamics may have affected turnout. In two County Commission races, write-ins who qualified specifically to prevent independents and Democrats from voting also appear to have suppressed voting not just in those key races, but across the board, as candidates speak of numerous voters who’ve told them they were simply not voting because they didn’t think they were eligible, even though there are still several non-partisan races on the ballot.
The Legislature is also likely partly to blame for the lower turnout as voter-suppressing measures–from restrictions on drop boxes to the wholesale cancelling of mail-ballot requests to fewer early voting days–have taken full effect.
Many voters were expecting to get a ballot in the mail but didn’t because of a change in state law. “We won’t have the vote by mail turnout in this election because all of the vote by mail requests were canceled after the ’22 election,” Lenhart said. “The 2022 primary was our highest turnout that we’ve had in our county since 2004, and that was 31 percent.” That was before the new law took its toll.
Before the Florida Legislature passed that law–claiming, without evidence, that without the change mail-in ballots could result in voting fraud–a voter could automatically receive a mail in ballot for four years, after making a request. The law reduced that to a single election cycle. Voters have to renew their requests every cycle, which naturally reduces the number of people doing so. (See: “Florida GOP Rollback of Voting Rights Triggers Uproar Among County Election Supervisors.”)
“A lot of counties are way behind in their requests,” Lenhart said. “We started our outreach back in December of 2023 and we’ve been working at it just to reach out to those people who did vote by mail previously to make sure that they renewed their request. A lot of people didn’t know it expired, so we were in better shape than a lot of counties surrounding us and statewide.”
But even Lenhart noticed the lower energy at the early voting sites. “It’s not even as busy as it normally would be with candidate tents,” she said. “I think it’s just too hot. Or our candidates just have different ways to reach their voters, and they’re just going about it with different methods.”
Lenhart’s message to voters: “We need the in-person vote. So it’s too late now to get a vote by mail ballot. They’re going to have to show up during the last couple days of early voting. Please vote, and on election day, make sure you vote at your precinct.” Check your voter information card before you vote so you know where your precinct is. There will be 22 precincts on Election Day.
