After rising to a three-year high last month, Flagler County’s unemployment rate declined a statistically insignificant fraction, to 4.4 percent in the state Department of Commerce’s seasonally unadjusted report issued this morning. Florida’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.3 percent, though the unadjusted rate is at 3.7 percent, while both rates undercount discouraged workers who have abandoned the workforce, and under-employed workers.
Flagler County’s unemployment rate declined slightly only because the labor force declined by more than 100 workers, about the same decline in the number of unemployed persons (2,275). The number of people holding jobs also declined slightly, to 49,327.
Flagler County had been steadily approaching the symbolically significant threshold of 50,000 employed workers last year, and crossed it exactly a year ago, but only in September, when it reached 50,138 for the first time in the county’s history. The county has not only struggled to stay close to that number. It has shed almost working people since, strongly suggesting that the influx of working-age individuals and families has slowed sharply, if it hasn’t stalled.
The local housing market continues to move steadily but nowhere near torridly, and with one troubling indicator: The local inventory of available housing is now at 1,225 single family homes–the highest number in 13 years. It was last at that level in may 2012, when the inventory was shrinking fast in the recovery from the housing boom. Flagler’s inventory has been rising almost every month for the last 18 months. The supply of homes is at 5.1 months, the highest level in 10 years. That is not particularly good news for developers with large projects under construction or just clearing their last regulatory hurdles.
On the other hand, housing economists consider the 5.5 mark in housing supply the level at which it is neither a buyer’s nor a seller’s market. Flagler County happens to have been a seller’s market for several years running. The federal reserve’s decision this week sharply to cut the prime lending rate is expected to boost a new round of lending at cheaper rates, likely helping homebuyers and, by extension, the housing industry.
Meanwhile single-family home sales in Flagler County continue, with just over 2,000 single-family home sales closing in the last 12 months, according to the latest report by the Flagler County Realtors Association, with over a third of those sales for cash. Cash sales reflect buys by investors or retirees with ready money, as opposed to younger families that typically need a mortgage to buy a house.
The median sale price is at $370,000, very near where it’s been for the last 12 months–another sign that the housing market is neither hot nor cold, though it now slightly favors buyers over sellers. Buyers are paying on average 94.6 percent of the original list price, so if a house was selling for $300,000, a buyer was able to push the price down to $283,800. It is taking over two months for a house to go from sale sign to contract and in August the 66 days it took to get to contract was the third-longest stretch since before Covid.
Paradoxically, consumer confidence among Floridians rose for the third consecutive month in August, reaching its highest level in the past three years at 76.4 points, up 1.6 points from a revised figure of 74.8 in July, according to the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. National consumer confidence also increased after four months of decline.
“Floridians grew more optimistic in August, driven by increased confidence in their personal financial situation and the national economy over the next year,” said Hector Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at the bureau. “Recent data shows that annual inflation fell below 3 percent in July. While employment figures have been revised downward, indicating a cooler labor market, second-quarter real GDP growth was revised up from 2.8 percent to 3 percent due to stronger consumer spending.”
There were 368,000 unemployed Floridians according to the state’s official tally. That tally reflects only the number of unemployed who qualify for the state’s 12 weeks of unemployment checks (the shortest benefit period in the nation). The checks top off at $275 a week, also at or near the lowest amount in the country. Once an unemployed person has run out of benefits, that person is no longer included in the unemployment tally. There are just under 10 million employed Floridians.
