Last Updated: 11:13 a.m.
Note: The National Weather Service at 10:55 a.m. Sunday issued a tornado watch for all of Flagler County, in effect until 8 p.m. Sunday. Understand tornado alerts here.
Tropical Storm Debby is expected to become a Category 1 hurricane by tonight before it reaches Florida’s Big Bend coast and swings toward north-central Florida and Southeast Georgia in a slow churn on Monday and Tuesday, bringing heavy rains bands that will stretch southward toward Flagler County, with three to four-inch rain accumulation locally, according to the Sunday morning forecast by the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service in Jacksonville.
While portions of Flagler County remain in the outer edges of the cone of probability–which means that there is still a possibility that the storm could swing further south than its center track projects–local tropical storm force winds are expected to be somewhat more limited than impacts further north, but not minimal.
NWS-Jacksonville’s current forecast for Flagler County is for possible tropical storm conditions as early as tonight, with evening thunderstorms producing heavy rain, and with wind gusts of up to 30 mph. Possible tropical storm conditions continue for Monday, NWS says, with wind gusts of up to 35 mph. Periods of heavy rain and wind gusts aren’t expected to end locally until Wednesday, because Debby, which will have again become a tropical storm by then, may slow or stall for a brief period over southeast Georgia.
If the storm continues on its current track, the National Weather Service says all of Flagler County has the potential to experience winds of between 39 and 57 miles per hour. The coast may see a storm surge of greater than a foot, which could impact the low-lying areas of Flagler Beach along the Intracoastal Waterway, with moderate potential for flooding rain and the potential for tornadoes. While the St. Johns River and its tributaries are at normal levels right now, water levels are expected to rise, with river flooding possibly persisting for weeks, the National Weather Service says.
Sunday morning the storm was some 150 miles southwest of Tampa, with maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour and moving north-northwest at 13 miles per hour. Storm surge watches and tropical storm warnings were issued for parts of Florida’s west coast as tropical-storm-force winds are extending outward up to 140 miles. Some of Debby’s outer bands are moving through portions of the Lower Florida Keys and southwestern Florida, with tropical-storm-force gusts.
“The reliable intensity models all suggest significant strengthening, and the degree of intensification will be most related to how quickly Debby develops
an inner core,” the National Hurricane Center predicts. As it becomes Hurricane Debby, it will gradually turn a bit more east and is expected to strike the Florida landmass in the same area where Hurricane Idalia struck–near Keaton Beach–as a Category 3 hurricane last Aug. 30, with storm surges of between 7 to 12 feet in Levy, Dixie, and Taylor counties. Wind and flooding damage was recorded well inland into Georgia, NOAA reported.
For Debby, the forecast models are largely in agreement for the next 48 hours but start diverging as to whether the storm will stay inland or move off the Atlantic coast by Tuesday. There is no disagreement that “Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of northern Florida through Friday morning. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and South Carolina through Friday morning will likely result in areas of severe and widespread flash and urban flooding. Significant river flooding is also expected.”
An animation of total expected accumulations over the next few days is below, along with the latest detailed briefing from the National Weather Service in Jacksonville.
nws-jax-briefing-aug-4
