The praise for Nicholas Sarkozy’s diplomatic coup soon turned to vicious criticism after Muammar Gaddafi’s son Saif al-Islam revealed what France had conceded. The most significant concession was $405 million in Italian and British weaponry (suggesting Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s involvement) in return for the defendants, economic deals, and normalized relations.
Although the sanctions appeared to be the Western countries’ ace-in-a-hole, the French deal shows Gaddafi played a matrix of American and European interests to his advantage. Gas companies from the U.S., Italy, and the U.K. desperately wanted access to Libyan oil and gas, then off-limits due to sanctions. Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi wanted Gaddafi’s cooperation on curbing illegal immigration into Italy from Africa and the Middle East. America and the U.K. saw him as a potential ally in the War on Terror. Finally, the Libyans possibly had kompromat on President Sarkozy, who allegedly illegally financed his 2007 campaign with their money.
Both sides had too much at stake not to negotiate. However, Western countries faced greater pressure due to humanitarian concerns and economic special interests that wanted the Libya sanctions lifted at any cost. Gaddafi, meanwhile, seemed under less internal pressure because he had the conviction that westerners considered a travesty. The longer the defendants were imprisoned and the louder the calls for their release, the more Western countries would be forced to concede. The more those countries protested, the angrier Libyans became, deflecting popular frustration away from Gaddafi.
