The National Weather Service in Jacksonville is predicting that the highest probability of rain in the Flagler Beach-Palm Coast region will be from 3 to 6 p.m., with a 60 percent chance at 3, falling to a 45 percent chance at 6 and 30 percent by 9 p.m.
Local officials, parade participants and spectators have their eyes on the forecast as the Flagler Beach Independence Day parade began staging at dawn in the parking lot of Santa Maria del Mar church, with a start time of 9 a.m. Flagler Beach’s First Friday festivities are scheduled for 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. The fireworks show is at the county airport at 9 p.m., preceded by a ceremonial reading of the Declaration of Independence by some 15 elected officials, including judges, but with a notable exception.
July 4 events are being affected by the development of a surface low-pressure system called Invest AL92 about 100 miles east of Jacksonville, early this morning. There is a 60 percent chance that the system will develop into a tropical cyclone, according to the National Weather Service. Local impacts from the system are expected to be primarily over the marine waters and along the local coast.
A moderate rip current Risk is expected through the weekend. Many rip current fatalities are not locals but visitors from inland locations. Flagler Beach will have its lifeguard crew on duty today between North 8th Street and South 7th Street. (Flagler County government, which pays for 50 percent of the crews’ salaries, is proposing to eliminate its funding by next year.)
If Invest AL92 develops into a tropical system, it will likely be a tropical depression or possibly a weak tropical storm, with the stronger winds remaining offshore of the local coast, NWS stated in a briefing this morning. This system is not expected to bring tropical wind or storm surge threats to our local area.
Localized flooding rainfall risk continues. Some locations have had over 4 inches in the past week. If another 2 to 4 inches fall in these locations with saturated grounds over the coming days, localized flooding will likely occur. Today the greatest flooding rainfall risk is across Northeast Florida south of the Interstate 10 corridor.
Fireworks Forecast: Even though many locations have a greater than a 60 percent chance of showers and storms today, most showers and storms will fade by 9 pm. Use this link for specific forecast timing:
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