There’s a dangerous myth in Flagler County, and the longer people have lived here, the more they start believing the myth, and spreading it: that Flagler County is immune to hurricanes. That the topography, that the way the shoreline curves just so, that the occluded ocean floor rises toward shore, all ensure that hurricanes veer off, whirl elsewhere, or wobble just enough, the way Hurricane Matthew did in 2016, to spare the county.
None of that is true. None of it has any scientific value. None of it has more validity than the occult, or your inebriated uncle’s guesses. And to go on believing it could lead to the sort of complacency that lowers people’s guard, says Jonathan Lord, Flagler County’s emergency management director.
“Just because we haven’t had one in memory or recent memory doesn’t mean we’re immune to it anywhere in Florida, including Northeast Florida, or Central Florida,” Lord said this morning in an appearance on WNZF’s Free For All Friday. “Flagler County has the potential for a Category Five landfalling storm. I don’t want that. None of us want that. But we do have to be prepared for that.”
Especially ahead of a season that may be the busiest yet.
“A typical average year for named storms, which is tropical storm or larger, is about 14 give or take. And they’re expecting 17, up into the low 20s, depending on who you ask.” Different organizations issue different forecasts. But “the Weather Channel, AccuWeather, all of them agree that this is going to be a very active season, and the number one reason for that is because they are seeing record ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. The average number of storms between 1991 and 2020 has been 14.4.
Of the 17 to 25 in the forecast, eight to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (74 mph or higher), including four to seven major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70 percent confidence in these ranges.
The University of Colorado is forecasting 23 named storms and 115 named storm days, compared to an average of 69 a year in the past 30 years. Eleven of the 23 named storms would be hurricanes, five of them major. “We anticipate that the 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be extremely active,” the university’s forecasters said.
Record warmth in the Atlantic and reduced windshear from the Pacific, because the Pacific is getting a bit cooler right now, combines to create those conditions more favorable a season that has weather experts concerned. “Now, does that mean we’re going to have one here, or not?” Lord said. “Absolutely not. They can’t predict with any accuracy seasonally that Florida or Flagler County is going to get a hurricane. That doesn’t exist yet. The technology doesn’t exist for that yet. But they can say hey, we’re going to have a lot in the Atlantic Basin, is what they call our general vicinity.”
The impacts of the last several storm seasons in Flagler County have all been tropical storm-like impacts–from Matthew in 2016, Irma in 2017, Ian and Nicole in 2022. Those impacts were not minor: Matthew and Irma knocked out power for almost the entirety of the county, leaving many without power for days, and the shore was ravaged by by the storms, exacerbating erosion and resulting in the series of beach reconstruction projects that haven’t ceased since.
Flagler County last experienced sustained hurricane force winds in 2004 during Hurricane Charley, and experienced hurricane gusts during Nicole in 2022. Recent memory does not record a direct hit.
“A lot of people say well that’s great. We don’t get hurricanes,” Lord said. “That is definitely not true. The cautionary tale I like to give that is very true, back many many years ago, Hurricane Michael.” The Panhandle never had a Category 5 hurricane. The assumption was that Cat 5 hurricanes were a South Florida problem. Michael turned into a Cat 5 hurricane by landfall.
“That’s the whole purpose of why we have an emergency management team and we work with all of our partners and make sure our community is educated about that, because that is a possibility,” Lord said. “Is it a high possibility? Probably not. But it is a distinct possibility. We need to be ready. We don’t want to be caught off guard and people saying, well I never thought a Category 5 could happen here. Because it very much can.” He stressed: “Risk wise, we are not any less of risk than any other coastal County in Florida.”
It’s also a misconception to think that residents are immune to hurricane impacts inland. Vast swaths of properties flood from storm surge along the Intracoastal, especially in Flagler Beach along Flagler Avenue–even in lesser storms–and vast swaths of properties flood on the west side of the county because the lake system there is connected to the St. Johns River watershed. Equally misconceived, Lord said, is the assumption that people west of I-95 are immune to storm surge. In a calamitous event, the storm surge would affect Palm Coast’s canals.
“The water is going to flow backwards and head into our community” through those canals, Lord said. “It’s a very rare storm that’ll make it past 95. But we have to remember that we have canals that cut through I-95 from the other side. So if the right storm or the right conditions happen, that water can come to the western side of I 95. Add on top of that any potential rain, the rain has nowhere to go because the canals are backed up. So again, I don’t say this to scare people. I just want people to be aware that these are feasible potentials that can happen if the right conditions occur in our community because of a hurricane.”
In other words, Lord was channeling his inner Sinclair Lewis for the benefit of Flagler residents: it can happen here.
Ironically, Flagler County has been so dry in recent weeks that the county declared a seven-week burn ban earlier this week, and has been experiencing the flip side of tropical downpours: such dryness that wildfires are popping up.
“There’s quite a few wildfires throughout the central part of the state,” Lord said, “including a couple we’ve had here in our county the last few weeks or almost the last month or so because we’ve been so dry, but most of the smoke today is actually coming from Volusia and Lake County. Our helicopter was up as I was driving over here and they were spotting fires in the western edges of our county just across the county line.”
A wave in the Caribbean is dumping a lot of rain in that region, and is heading toward the Florida Peninsula. It would bring that rain here Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, according to the National Weather Service in Jacksonville. If the forecast holds, that will relieve the region from an “extremely dry” spell, Lord said.
Then will come the hurricanes.
2019 Hurricane Preparedness Guide
