Last Updated: 8:45 a.m.
Note: WNZF and three other Flagler Broadcasting radio stations will have storm updates at 10 a.m., 2 and 4 p.m. today. See Monday’s Milton reporting here.
Hurricane Milton’s projected path has remained remarkably steady with very slight variations north or south, but with models agreeing on landfall in the Tampa Bay area after midnight Thursday and now mostly merging to agree on a path along or a bit south of I-4, toward Merritt Island and the Space Coast, where it would exit, still as a hurricane, Thursday afternoon.
“But again, please don’t focus on the center of the cone,” Flagler County Emergency Management Director Jonathan Lord said this morning. “Definitely expect the eye can travel anywhere within that cone, and potentially outside of the cone. Sometimes, that’s why the cone shifts. But again, this cone hasn’t shifted too much.”
The storm’s nearly 12-hour crawl across the state is slower than previously estimated, and the size of the storm is growing larger–two factors that will compound damages and dangers and likely increase the extent of power cuts in the storm’s path and its rain-heavy northern front, which includes Flagler County. Conditions will deteriorate in Flagler Tuesday night, but most local impacts are expected Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, according to the National Weather Service in Jacksonville.
Tropical-storm force winds ranging between 40 and 70 mph are expected in Flagler County, with the possibility of hurricane-force winds especially on the barrier island. A very slight change either way could have significant consequences for the Flagler-Palm Coast area, especially if the storm wobbles north. The entire county remains in the storm’s cone of probability, which means the storm could cross any portion of the county.
Flagler County is facing a heavy rain event, with “extreme flooding rain” in the southern third of the county. That includes Seminole Woods and Quail Hollow in Palm Coast and Hunters Ridge in the unincorporated part of the county, and on the barrier island, including Flagler Beach and Beverly Beach. The National Weather Service places rain totals at 10 to 15 inches for the county–or possibly more than a foot, on already saturated grounds. Tree falls will be more frequent because of weakened roots and strong winds. A flash flood watch is in effect for the whole county.
“This is a generalization, because every storm is different,” Lord said. “If you saw flooding in Irma, Ian or Nicole, you are likely to see flooding with this storm in our community. That does not mean that you’re guaranteed. You might end up with a dry lawn, and may end up with a wet lawn if you’re on the waterways and say, Well, I didn’t have it in Irma. Every storm is different, but the good generalization is Irma, Ian or Nicole, if you saw water in many one of those storms, there’s a good chance you’re going to see water again in this storm.” That goes for “the bulk of the barrier island,” he said.
The local storm surge along the coast and the Intracoastal is expected to be around 3 to 5 feet–severe enough for low-lying areas and homes along the Intracoastal, such as Flagler Avenue, Lambert Avenue and Palm Drive in Flagler Beach to be affected. Those are among the neighborhoods that will likely be facing evacuation orders. Some evacuations are expected to be announced today in Flagler, as will the opening of shelters in Palm Coast. The shelter will open at Rymfire Elementary for special needs, the general population, and residents with pets.
A 2 to 4 foot storm surge is also expected along the St. Johns River Basin, including Crescent Lake, which will affect western portions of Flagler County. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the Volusia/Brevard County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River, including the St. Johns River. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the east coast of Florida from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach, including all of Flagler County’s coastline.
The storm is a still-major Category 4, with winds of 145 miles per hour, with further fluctuations in strength expected over the next 48 hours before landfall, “but there is high confidence that Milton will remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches the state,” the National Hurricane Center said in its early-morning advisory. But it will weaken after landfall.
“A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along parts of the west coast of Florida. This is an extremely life-threatening situation and residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if told to do so,” NHC states.
At 8 this morning Hurricane Milton was 545 miles southwest of Tampa, with sustained winds of 145 miles per hour and moving east northeast at 12 mph. It went through an eyewall replacement cycle overnight, which weakened the strength of the storm while expanding it. Eyewall replacement cycles are common with large storms, causing fluctuations in their intensity. Milton is expected to accelerate today as it continues to move toward Tampa.
briefing-tuesday
