See previous Hurricane Milton reports here (Tuesday) and here (Monday).
Last Updated: 9:11 a.m.
Hurricane Milton, currently Category 5 with winds of 160 mph, will make landfall sometime late tonight or in the first hours of Thursday as a Category 3 or 4 storm in or just south of Tampa Bay then reach the Atlantic coast of Florida after barreling for a dozen hours through the heart of the state, from Sarasota to Melbourne, as a Category 3, 2 and 1 hurricane, its intensity diminishing the further east it goes, but its size growing the further east it goes. Its heaviest rains and wind impacts will be on its north side.
“Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida,” the National Hurricane Center said this morning.
Hurricane-force winds will extend 30 miles from the center, while tropical-force storm winds will extend 125 miles from the center, placing Palm Coast and Flagler County in the northern storm zone, but no longer in the cone of probability of a direct hit. The maximum the eye of the storm may shift in predictions 24 hours from landfall, according to the National Hurricane Center, is 40 miles in either direction.
Nevertheless, the National Weather Center in Jacksonville is warning of tropical-storm force winds in the entirety of Flagler and St. Johns County that could range between 58 and 73 miles per hour, with hurricane-force gusts, and “extreme flooding rain” for large parts of Flagler County and the barrier island. Combined with saturated grounds, expect widespread downed trees and powerlines, power outages and damage to some homes and mobile homes. Those conditions will begin in Flagler County around midnight tonight and continue through Thursday evening. A Hurricane Warning is in effect in Flagler County.
“The cone got skinnier, so we’re actually outside of the cone,” Flagler County Emergency Management Director Jonathan Lord said this morning. “Now, our chances of having hurricane force winds have gone down, but they have not gone away. So that’s my huge caution. Just like it got skinnier, storms can shift, and literally it only takes a couple miles shift for us to be seeing these things. That’s really my big caution.”
Flagler County has ordered mandatory evacuations effective at 8 this morning for all residents in mobile homes and recreational vehicles anywhere in the county, for the entire barrier island, including Flagler Beach and Beverly Beach, for all the communities along South Anderson Highway, Polo Club West and Sweetbottom Plantation properties along Lexington Court / Ashland Way up to the Bulow Creek, all of the Marina del Palma properties along the Intracoastal, and on the mainland of Flagler Beach, all homes along Palm Drive and Lambert Avenue.
This may not be the final list. Emergency officials may add to it–as in fact they did this morning. The following areas are now required to evacuate as well: Flagler Estates and Methvin Road at the far northwest end of the county, where a handful of residents live. The concern there is flooding. Also, Durrance Lane / Strickland Road in Hunters Ridge at the south end of the county, and properties directly bordering Crescent Lake and Dead Lake at the west end of the county.
A curfew goes in effect in Flagler County at 7 this evening, until 7 a.m. Thursday. The curfew is countywide.
“Our deputies will use common sense, but don’t be surprised if you’re driving around or walking around after 7 p.m. and you’re not on your own property that you’re going to encounter a deputy sheriff to ask you why you’re out, and if you have a legitimate reason,” Sheriff Rick Staly said this morning. “There are some exceptions in the emergency order, to and from work for example, first responders, utility companies returning home from work, those kind of things are exceptions, and our deputies will use common sense.”
All schools, colleges, court activities, and most government offices are closed today and Thursday, garbage collections suspended.
“If it turns out that the evacuation is unnecessary we only know that after the fact, it’s better to be safe than sorry,” Scott Spradley, chair of the Flagler Beach City Commission, said early this morning. “It’s a wise move by the professionals at Emergency Management. It gives people the opportunity to see in living color that this is a real, potentially horrific event, and to take care of themselves and their families.”
Lord said this morning he has gotten no reports of congestion on the roads out of Flagler County. But since the evacuation order does not kick in until 8 a.m., it may be difficult to gauge just yet what the roads will look like.
Emergency officials have no intention of closing the State Road 100 bridge, but if and when winds reach a certain intensity, emergency responders will stop responding to calls until the storm’s intensity diminishes. That means people in the evacuation zone whop may have a medical or other form of emergency, including water emergencies, will not get help until it is safe for responders to travel.
A shelter opens at Rymfire Elementary, at 1425 Rymfire Drive in Palm Coast, at 8 this morning, for the general population, for special-needs patients, and for people with pets. The county has plans to open additional shelters if necessary. County officials are asking residents who intend to go to the shelter to do so before 7 this evening.
“Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday,” according to NHC, with predictions for Flagler-Palm Coast in the 6 to 8 inch range, and heavier localized amounts. Volusia County is expected to get heavier amounts.
The storm surge along coastal Flagler and the Intracoastal is predicted at 3 to 5 feet, and at 2 to 4 feet along the St. Johns River Basin, including Dead Lake and Crescent Lake to the west. The storm surge in Tampa Bay at landfall is predicted at 10 to 15 feet.
Hurricane Milton this morning was 300 miles southwest of Tampa, moving west northwest at 14 miles per hour, with wide swaths of rain already covering the midsection of Florida from Lake Okeechobee to the Big Bend area to the west and St. Johns County to the east.
Lord and Staly in an 8 a.m. press conference this morning sought to reassure the community that teams are in place to manage the emergency. “When it comes to disasters, natural or man made, whatever you are, we work as one team, regardless of the municipal jurisdiction, state government, county governments, all of the governments, the sheriff’s office, all the other constitutional officers,” Lord said. “We really do function as a unified team, because the end of the day, when a disaster is hitting our community, what’s on the side of your vehicle, your truck or on your shirt does not really matter. We’re all here to help our community. We have an amazing partnership. That’s what I love about our community. It’s all done as a partnership, including volunteer groups that come out and join us as part of this fight to make sure we can make it through whatever disaster is done in our community. It’s I think something every Flagler County resident and business should be very proud of.”
nws-jax-briefing (1)
