Eleven days after Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend, Tropical Storm Milton, expected to be Hurricane Milton by tonight, is rapidly gaining strength and is expected to become a major hurricane by Tuesday. It is mobilizing Florida from Tampa Bay through the north-central midsection of the state, including Flagler County, where severe conditions and impacts are expected.
The National Hurricane Center has a caveat: “Milton is a small cyclone, and such systems can both strengthen and weaken very rapidly.” But indications today are that the storm will strengthen rapidly then start moving rapidly toward the Florida Peninsula’s midsection, with areas of heavy rainfall impacting Florida today and Monday, well ahead of Milton, with even more heavy rainfall related to the storm Tuesday through Wednesday night.
As of Sunday morning, tropical-storm-force winds are expected in Flagler County late Tuesday night into Wednesday. The rainfall potential over the next five days for coastal Flagler County, including Flagler Beach and Beverly Beach, is in the 8 to 12-inch range, and in the 6 to 8 inch range for inland Flagler. The flash flooding potential is at least 40 percent for most of Flagler County. The heaviest rainfall potential is from Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Those figures are as variable as the track of the storm.
Saturday evening, Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 35 Florida counties, including Flagler, St. Johns, Volusia and Putnam counties.
Milton’s current path has it making landfall as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane at midweek in Tampa Bay, then barreling roughly along the I-4 corridor either toward Volusia-Flagler or the Space Coast, depending on current models. The American model, known as GFS (Global Forecasting System), has it going slightly further north. The European model, known as ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), has it edging further south.
“There remains some spread in both the track and forward speed, so it is too early to specify which portions of the Florida Peninsula will get the worst impacts,” the National Hurricane Center notes this morning. “The new forecast track is nudged a little south of the previous track and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models. It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 4 is around 150 miles.” That’s why forecaster repeatedly urge the public not to fixate on the storm’s exact track.
The National Hurricane Center currently has Milton as a hurricane when it exits the Florida Peninsula after midnight Thursday. Whatever path it takes, it is projected to be a violent, destructive storm bringing heavy rain and severe winds, with at least tropical storm conditions for Flagler County, and the potential for hurricane conditions, according to Jonathan Lord, Flagler County’s emergency management director. “I am definitely concerned,” he said.
The county’s Emergency Operations Center is getting activated Monday morning. “We are planning for a cat 1/2,” he said, referring to the strength of the hurricane on the 1-to-5 Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. A Category 1 hurricane has winds of 75 to 95 miles per hour. A category 2 hurricane has winds of 96 to 110. A hurricane is considered “major” when it reaches Category 3, with winds of 111-129, which can cause devastating damage even to well-built frame houses. Category 4 and 5 (130 to 157 mph and higher) are in the “catastrophic” zone.
With wind damage and storm surge, both of which are expected to be severe, an added concern along the path of the storm is a ground saturated from persistent rain over the last few weeks. Saturated ground weakens trees ability to withstand severe winds and increase the likelihood of trees toppling over.
Here are the potential impacts in Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, according to the National Weather Center in Jacksonville:
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- Regardless of development, in advance of the tropical system, persistent and gradually strengthening onshore winds will bring deteriorating marine, coastal and minor tidal flooding conditions the region, with nor’easter conditions.
- Tidal Flooding: Water levels will continue to increase within the St. Johns River basin this week due to the persistent onshore flow, with moderate tidal flooding possible by midweek.
- Surf Zone Hazards: High Rip Current risk and rough surf through at least Thursday. Beach erosion could be significant, which is always a concern with Flagler County’s fragile beaches, some of which have just been rebuilt–and have already seen significant erosion from Hurricane Helene.
- Marine Hazards: Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible for the outer waters as early as Monday morning.
- Gusty northeast winds will strengthen by Tuesday and Wednesday. Additional tree damage will be possible in northeast and north central FL, as many trees are already weakened post-Helene.
- Locally heavy rainfall is possible on Sunday, with increasing coverage and intensity on Tuesday and Wednesday, especially for coastal southeast Georgia and much of northeast and north central Florida.
- Preparations should be made on Sunday and Monday to secure any objects (weak structures, trees, etc) that are most susceptible to wind, rainfall, and elevated tides.
Local governments are expected to stand up sand-bagging operations and announce closures affecting operations at midweek, but likely not before Monday. This morning, Tropical Storm Milton was about 845 miles west southwest of Tampa, with sustained winds of 50 miles per hour, crawling east at 5 miles per hour. “Milton is forecast to become a hurricane
tonight, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico,” the National Hurricane Center predicts.
Here’s the expected total rain accumulation from Hurricane Milton over the coming week:
