Last Updated: 7:45 a.m.
Tuesday, 7:45 a.m.Idalia developed into a hurricane overnight and began accelerating toward Florida’s Big Ben coast, where it is expected to make landfall at midday Wednesday as a Category 3 storm. Its path, according to the National Hurricane Center, has nudged north-northwest, enough to remove Flagler County from the cone of probability for now–at least as far as the hurricane’s eye is concerned–but not from the likelihood of tropical storm force impacts due to the width of the storm: it extends 150 miles from the eye.
Western Flagler, including Bunnell, Espanola and Andalusia, are in a tropical storm warning, as is coastal Flagler County. The National Weather Service warns of a potential 1 to 3 foot storm surge along low lying, coastal and lakeside areas starting this evening. Flagler County is expected to receive between 1 and 3 inches of rain with higher amounts possible in localized areas. The situation remains “favorable for tornadoes,” according to the Weather Service.
But overall, Flagler County is in better shape this morning than it seemed on Monday. “So far so good for us,” Jonathan Lord, Flagler County’s Emergency Management director, said early this morning. “We still have to prepare as if we are” getting tropical storm force impacts, however, because that threat has not been removed, he said.
Flagler County Health Department Administrator Bob Snyder said Monday evening plans were afoot to open Rymfire Elementary as a combined shelter for the general population and special needs. But Lord said the decision on whether to open the shelter has not been made. “It will be made later this afternoon, I’d like to get a couple more weather briefings before we lock that in,” he said. Flagler County schools are open today, but outdoor, afternoon activities have been cancelled. Indoor activities may go on.
Flagler schools will be closed on Wednesday, and very likely re-open on Thursday. Other organizations and some government offices have announced closures for Wednesday. In Palm Coast, yard debris and recycling collection services have been canceled for Wednesday. Garbage collection services will resume according to the regular schedule on Thursday.
With strong winds ahead, “there is bound to be some downed trees, because of that there’s a chance it’ll impact electrical infrastructure for a period of time,” Lord said. The county will remain in a tropical storm watch for the next 24-36 hours, he said. “I don’t foresee us going to a hurricane watch or warning.”
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Here’s what the storm’s path looks like over the next few days, according to the European forecasting model, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits:
The storm’s path could yet change wither way. It has been affected by a weather front to the north and by Hurricane Franklin, a major, Category 4 hurricane hurricane packing 140 miles per hour winds southwest of Bermuda. Franklin is not threatening the coast of the United States. It is acting as a nuclear-force fan against Idalia, keeping Idalia from swinging over most of Florida’s east coast.
Flagler County may be thankful for Hurricane Franklin. Taylor, Dixie and Levy counties–where Hurricane Idalia will make landfall–may not be as thankful, except for their relatively small, rural populations. All three counties have a combined population of 84,000–less than Flagler County’s 120,000–which presumably will limit risk to lives and property damage, and speed up repairs. The storm’s current path remains to the east of Tallahassee, cutting inland through more rural, sparsely populated counties. The hurricane’s intensity will not diminish to a tropical storm until it crosses into southeast Georgia.
“Local impacts from Idalia will begin this evening, as spiral rain bands begin to overspread our region from southwest to northeast,” the National Weather Service in Jacksonville cautions. That applies to Flagler County. “Heavy rainfall will then continue Wednesday evening. Tornadoes will be possible across the area on Tuesday night and Wednesday, with higher chances expected for locations along and east of the U.S. Highway 301 corridor. Sustained tropical storm force winds will begin to be felt across north central Florida and the Suwannee Valley during the predawn hours on Wednesday, with conditions deteriorating quickly after sunrise, when hurricane force wind gusts will be possible. Sustained hurricane force winds are expected near the core of Idalia
in the Suwannee Valley through the early the mid afternoon hours, with hurricane force gusts possible elsewhere along the Interstate 75 corridor. Sustained tropical storm force winds will be possible elsewhere in our area on Wednesday.”
Lord said county and city residents should have completed most of their storm preparation by today, making sure all yard items are cleaned up or secured. The state’s sales tax holiday for disaster items is still in effect.
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